North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

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North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby toucana on August 8th, 2017, 7:44 pm 

The North Korean government has threatened to launch a preemptive missile attack on the American military base on the Pacific island of Guam.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-40871416?ocid=socialflow_twitter

The latest escalation follows a report earlier today by the Washington Post that North Korea has successfully miniaturised a nuclear weapon that could be fitted as a warhead onto an IBCM of the type they have recently successfully tested. An follow-up report in the Post claims that the North Korean military command may have up to sixty viable nuclear weapons.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/north-korea-now-making-missile-ready-nuclear-weapons-us-analysts-say/2017/08/08/e14b882a-7b6b-11e7-9d08-b79f191668ed_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_usnkorea-1212p%3Ahomepage%2Fstory&utm_term=.d6be83f41543

President Trump had responded to the first reports by the WAPO by saying that North Korea would be met with "Fire and fury" if their government continued to make threats against the USA.

Guam is an island in the western Pacific which is an unincorporated and organised territory of the United States. It has a population of around 162,000 inhabitants who are American citizens by birth.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby BadgerJelly on August 9th, 2017, 12:48 am 

Preemptive means to strike before being attacked. As far as I heard they said if one bullet is fired by South Korean or US forces they were considering a nuclear strike on Guam.

I am 100% sure they would because in any non-nuclear engagement they have nothing. The US has the means to intercept a nuclear missile right?
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby wolfhnd on August 9th, 2017, 4:54 am 

They are not stupid if they want to make a devastating nuclear attack they could figure out a way.

Many people may forget how the U.S. destroyed most of North Korea during the Korean war. While North Korea may be a dictatorship with little freedom of thought the people have a reasonable fear that it could happen again. That means that internal reform is not subject to normal constraints that anyone considering a regime change in other nations would face. To be fair the U.S. would be forced to retaliate with excessive force if the regime under threat of civil war launched a provocative nuclear attack as a last ditch effort to save itself.

We have already seen that the Korean leadership is willing to starve it's population to maintain it's authority. It will be unlikely to make the fate of it's citizens a consideration in how it uses nuclear weapons.

Perhaps Bush or Obama should have stopped the North Korean nuclear program but there was China to consider. It may be too late for that option now in any case. But we should not hold the current administration responsible for this disastrous but predictable situation we face.

I'm glad I don't have to deal with this problem that Trump is faced with. It seems likely he has discussed it with the Chinese and apparently negotiated if not their approval at least some way of avoiding a war with North Korea from spreading to China. That does not mean that a war could actually be contained to simply annihilating North Korea. South Korea at the very least would pay a heavy price.

I doubt that bribing the North Korean leadership to eliminate their nuclear weapons would work. The state of the North Korea's economy is demonstrably not been a significant concern for them in the past. It simply does not effect the leadership.

China should never have let this happen but Mao seems to have been ever bit as corrupt as Kim jong un. Mao was also indifferent to the suffering of his people and would never have agreed to any compromise in ideology for the sake of the North Korean people. I'm sure however that the left will blame the U.S. The 10s of millions that have been sacrificed in the name of communism is ironically at least in part the responsibility of left leaning apologists. It should have been stopped in Russia in 1915 and in China in 1945. Who knew of course how things would turn out.

Now there is nothing we can do for the North Korean people. They will have to suffer until communism dies a natural death. That may take generations and millions more lives. It is a case where an ounce of prevention may have saved a pound of cure.

It looks like South Africa and Venezuela are headed for the same fate. Isolated and paranoid societies that no one can help.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby BadgerJelly on August 9th, 2017, 5:21 am 

Venezuela, N.Korea, Iraq, Sudan, Somalia, Syria ... they are all part of US war games.

The US will be blamed because the US is to blame for a great deal right now. The plan was clear that they set out and now people are wise to it saying "leftist apologist" just isn't going to work on me.

The US has been threatening many, many people interfering to global politics across the globe. You cannot openly fund foreign parties against foreign governments and openly assassinate people and expect people to sing your praises. Enough people in the US know this and it is not them I hold responsible, it is the lies, manipulation and cheating of the governing powers will to create a global monopoly at any cost. They are concerned with winning only not with an end goal or ethical aim, they just want to win by brute force and coercion.

Like I said "preemptive" means to strike before being struck. From what I have read that is not the message coming out of N.Korea right now. They are saying "Don't invade or else."

I am not siding with the N.Korean regime just saying it is all too easy to be blinded by the rhetoric.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby wolfhnd on August 9th, 2017, 4:43 pm 

If you do nothing you are blamed and every time you do something you open yourself to criticism.

The U.S. is not responsible for the socialist disasters in Russia, Germany, Italy, China, etc.

Was the response rational or moral? That is somewhat irrelevant because the evidence suggests things would have gone badly if the U.S. had done nothing.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby toucana on August 9th, 2017, 8:13 pm 

North Korea has issued an even more specific threat to fire four missiles at Guam in the near future.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/09/politics/north-korea-considering-near-guam-strike/index.html

A new statement from Gen. Kim Rak Gyom published by state-run media KCNA says that the North Korean Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army is "seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the US"

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA would cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures of Japan, and would fly 3,356.7 kilometers for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 kilometers away from Guam, according to the statement.

KCNA published a wire criticizing Trump for having "let out a load of nonsense about 'fire and fury,' failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA [Korean People's Army]".

The principal military targets on Guam include Andersen AFB on the northeast coast which is a staging post for bomber squadrons, and a large Naval base on the southwest coast.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby SciameriKen on August 10th, 2017, 9:21 am 

toucana » Thu Aug 10, 2017 12:13 am wrote:North Korea has issued an even more specific threat to fire four missiles at Guam in the near future.

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/09/politics/north-korea-considering-near-guam-strike/index.html

A new statement from Gen. Kim Rak Gyom published by state-run media KCNA says that the North Korean Strategic Force of the Korean People's Army is "seriously examining the plan for an enveloping strike at Guam through simultaneous fire of four Hwasong-12 intermediate-range strategic ballistic rockets in order to interdict the enemy forces on major military bases on Guam and to signal a crucial warning to the US"

The Hwasong-12 rockets to be launched by the KPA would cross the sky above Shimane, Hiroshima and Koichi prefectures of Japan, and would fly 3,356.7 kilometers for 1,065 seconds and hit the waters 30 to 40 kilometers away from Guam, according to the statement.

KCNA published a wire criticizing Trump for having "let out a load of nonsense about 'fire and fury,' failing to grasp the on-going grave situation. This is extremely getting on the nerves of the infuriated Hwasong artillerymen of the KPA [Korean People's Army]".

The principal military targets on Guam include Andersen AFB on the northeast coast which is a staging post for bomber squadrons, and a large Naval base on the southwest coast.


Crucial warning?? That would be war in my book!
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Braininvat on August 10th, 2017, 9:42 am 

Aren't the NKeans noted for overheated rhetoric, in the past? I can remember, early 90s IIRC, the regime was just beginning a nuclear program and issued some statement about being able to reduce Seoul to molten rock if anyone messed with them. I think if we can keep up our program that helps smuggles information into NK from China (DVDs, CDs, various kinds of electronics and software to break through state firewalls, etc.), the population will continue to become more aware of how the rest of the world lives, the stark disparity between their standard of living and SK's...and the regime will start to erode. I think we need to help pave the way for reunification, in a quiet, behind the scenes way, and not get involved in escalating rhetoric until someone gets nervous and pushes the wrong button. Look to German reunification as a better roadmap - help change from within. Trump's aggressive talk is putting millions of lives at risk.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby SciameriKen on August 10th, 2017, 10:10 am 

Braininvat » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:42 pm wrote:Aren't the NKeans noted for overheated rhetoric, in the past? I can remember, early 90s IIRC, the regime was just beginning a nuclear program and issued some statement about being able to reduce Seoul to molten rock if anyone messed with them. I think if we can keep up our program that helps smuggles information into NK from China (DVDs, CDs, various kinds of electronics and software to break through state firewalls, etc.), the population will continue to become more aware of how the rest of the world lives, the stark disparity between their standard of living and SK's...and the regime will start to erode. I think we need to help pave the way for reunification, in a quiet, behind the scenes way, and not get involved in escalating rhetoric until someone gets nervous and pushes the wrong button. Look to German reunification as a better roadmap - help change from within. Trump's aggressive talk is putting millions of lives at risk.


Slow change from within is a good strategy, and there is evidence that this is occurring and that micro-capitalistic cells are a key reason why many aren't starving to death in NK. However, the march towards intercontinental ballistic missiles continues for North Korea - and peaceful means to stop this obviously are not working. Do we just let them get there and hope they stop when they have their functional missiles? What if they then say, remove all sections or else Tokyo gets it? Where does it stop?
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Braininvat on August 10th, 2017, 10:49 am 

Well, no one knows for sure. To me, it looks like anything that comes from the mouth of NK is hot air, because I don't believe they are truly suicidal. They know that any actual attack would result in their destruction. Every nation that has nukes, also has the knowledge of what nukes do. There's a reason India and Pakistan are still around.

Bullying dictators generally have a strong instinct for self-preservation. At a basic level, the regime knows that if "Tokyo gets it,' so do they.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby toucana on August 10th, 2017, 9:04 pm 

Quite a few commentators have wondered if Trump's 'Fire and Fury" comments were meant to be a conscious echo of President Harry Truman's statement on 6 August 1945 immediately after the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima - Truman actually said :
If they do not now accept our terms they may expect a rain of ruin from the air, the like of which has never been seen on this earth

http://time.com/4893220/trump-fire-fury-truman-rain-ruin/

On balance it seems unlikely that Trump would have known anything about Truman's speech. He doesn't read books and has no real interest in history. It is equally unlikely that any of his senior security and defence advisers such as Gen. Mattis or Gen. McMaster would have brought it to his attention or suggested it as an acceptable form of rhetoric in the current crisis. The truth seems to be that they were caught by surprise too. So where did the 'Fire and fury" trope come from ?

An article on the Palmer Report website points out that 'Fire and Fury' is actually a reference to the 'World of Warcraft' video game. There is a game level in WOW called 'Fire and Fury'.

http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/trump-fire-fury-north-korea-video-game/4263/

And guess which close Trump adviser has a lengthy professional and financial history with that particular video game company? (hint - his name rhymes with 'Cannon' as in 'loose..')
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby SciameriKen on August 11th, 2017, 9:18 am 

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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Eclogite on August 11th, 2017, 10:59 am 

Braininvat » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:42 pm wrote:Look to German reunification as a better roadmap - help change from within.
Unfortunately German reunification was a consequence of the collapse of the Sovier Union. I don't see any sign of the imminent collapse of communist China.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby wolfhnd on August 11th, 2017, 12:57 pm 

Eclogite » Fri Aug 11, 2017 2:59 pm wrote:
Braininvat » Thu Aug 10, 2017 1:42 pm wrote:Look to German reunification as a better roadmap - help change from within.
Unfortunately German reunification was a consequence of the collapse of the Sovier Union. I don't see any sign of the imminent collapse of communist China.


I'm not sure that North Korea is a puppet state of China as East Germany was to the USSR.

I suspect China would prefer that North Korea not have Nuclear weapons.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/ch ... 60cc5d9c5d

I cannot see a scenario in which nuclear weapons would not proliferate. The U.S. just had the resources to produce them first. The information needed to build them was theoretically available to anyone. China had no more control over Korea getting nuclear weapons than the U.S. had over Israel getting them.

If North Korea's neighbors want to invade I would think the U.S. would have to support that decision but if we lead such an undertaking it will make the situation worse. I agree with BIV that the best option is to wait and see because the cost of invasion is so high in terms of lives. That could be very costly if in the end several U.S. cities get nuked but it isn't like there are no other scenarios where that happens.

Universal disarmament not non proliferation seems like the only practical long-term solution.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Braininvat on August 11th, 2017, 1:01 pm 

Unfortunately German reunification was a consequence of the collapse of the Sovier Union. I don't see any sign of the imminent collapse of communist China.
- Eclogite

Yes. I only meant, broadly, the pattern of eroding support for a government combined with a neighboring nation where your relatives may still live and that once was part of your own. Korea was one nation until the middle of the 20th century. My point was principally that the economic conditions in NK are only tolerable if you are completely unaware of what your cousins to the south enjoy. In an information-porous world, it's harder and harder to maintain that kind of unawareness.


Re: Crazy is Good. A provocative hypothesis, that stupidity and ignorance could somehow work for our POTUS. What a strange world it is where we can view Kim Jong and his regime as more rational than the POTUS.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby wolfhnd on August 11th, 2017, 3:27 pm 

Braininvat » Fri Aug 11, 2017 5:01 pm wrote:
Unfortunately German reunification was a consequence of the collapse of the Sovier Union. I don't see any sign of the imminent collapse of communist China.
- Eclogite

Yes. I only meant, broadly, the pattern of eroding support for a government combined with a neighboring nation where your relatives may still live and that once was part of your own. Korea was one nation until the middle of the 20th century. My point was principally that the economic conditions in NK are only tolerable if you are completely unaware of what your cousins to the south enjoy. In an information-porous world, it's harder and harder to maintain that kind of unawareness.


Re: Crazy is Good. A provocative hypothesis, that stupidity and ignorance could somehow work for our POTUS. What a strange world it is where we can view Kim Jong and his regime as more rational than the POTUS.


Being unpredictable is a prerequisite for being a moral agent.

Trump is not stupid and ignorance is relative to experience. People really need to get over the anti Trump mania.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Braininvat on August 11th, 2017, 4:52 pm 

Not really a mania, that I am aware of. His lack of basic knowledge of history, geography, geopolitics, the Constitution, the law generally, has been massively documented and is extraordinary for the head of a large nation. And poses a considerable threat when he blunders or attempts to do harm to institutions of democracy. This is not a partisan mania, AFAICT. Even publications like National Review have expressed some concern over the President's ignorance. I am sure, as a literate and aware person, you saw this morning that the President had claimed that Americans had the highest rates of personal income tax in the world. If there is a way to construe such a falsehood as NOT indicative of ignorance, and stupidity, I would be fascinated to learn about it.

Ignorance is not always a result of stupidity, but if we are talking about the POTUS, there is not really any legitimate excuse for it. Trump grew up in a wealthy family, and could easily afford a good education from a good school. Which makes stuff like his famous clueless comments (how did that Civil War get started, anyway?) seem more inexcusable than they would emanating from the average Joe sitting on the next barstool.

The only mania I am seeing is the mania to make excuses for a raging dumpster fire of a POTUS. One that would gleefullly engulf the 1st amendment, for starters.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby wolfhnd on August 11th, 2017, 5:02 pm 

I'm not going to waste my time arguing over what is largely irrelevant. If you want to do something meaningful try to influence instead of insulting.
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Braininvat on August 11th, 2017, 5:57 pm 

A graceful withdrawal, sir. I can't tell if you concede the point or not. My point remains - a POTUS ignorant of the fields most relevant to his executive office is a dangerous loose cannon. Not an insult so much as something to be aware of, and an awareness to heighten our vigilance as citizen watchdogs of democracy. If you make excuses for a President, it's not an insult to ask at what point, at what level of malfeasance, would you stop making excuses and take positive action? Would you, for example, consider campaigning for, and voting for, a Congressional candidate in 2018 who stands against Trump's policies and unprofessional behavior?

And, may I remind you, you opened up this branch of the conversation by dismissing other member comments here as "anti-Trump mania." When people are strongly opposed to their government, it is usually for a reason, and it is those reasons that should be understood and addressed, not the presence or absence of "mania."
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Re: North Korea Threatens Preemptive Strike on Guam

Postby Mossling on August 14th, 2017, 11:41 pm 

Braininvat » August 10th, 2017, 10:42 pm wrote:Aren't the NKeans noted for overheated rhetoric, in the past? I can remember, early 90s IIRC, the regime was just beginning a nuclear program and issued some statement about being able to reduce Seoul to molten rock if anyone messed with them. I think if we can keep up our program that helps smuggles information into NK from China (DVDs, CDs, various kinds of electronics and software to break through state firewalls, etc.), the population will continue to become more aware of how the rest of the world lives, the stark disparity between their standard of living and SK's...and the regime will start to erode. I think we need to help pave the way for reunification, in a quiet, behind the scenes way, and not get involved in escalating rhetoric until someone gets nervous and pushes the wrong button. Look to German reunification as a better roadmap - help change from within. Trump's aggressive talk is putting millions of lives at risk.

I agree with you entirely.

Can anyone here, though, highlight the most recent most aggressive statement from NK that insinuates that it has a suicidal dream to nuke a bunch of US cities?

Russia and Pakistan have nukes and have made anti-US statements, but what makes NK different? That they threaten with more violent language to retaliate in more violent ways IF America is seen to meddle in their attempts to continue their way of life? I am not aware, at present, of any more 'fair' threat than this coming from NK, and so if the US ups the brinkmanship purely because they want to dictate NK's way of life, then when the whole mess and matter is analysed post-war, the US will be seen to be at fault. And especially in the light of the current Whitehouse not exactly being seen as a beacon of human rights values, what with the far-right sympathies it is displaying. Any war instigated by the Trump administration will be tinted with Hitler-esque overtones, rather than any alleged need to 'liberate' an opressed people.

All the same, it still seems that the Western media is painting a picture of NK as somehow deserving invasion by the US for its 'insane dictatorial regime' that has 'deep disregard for the most basic of human rights', even while there are white supremacist movements afoot and gathering speed across Europe and the US.

Again, can anyone say what the most antagonising statement NK has released that makes them so 'deserving' of invasion? Being a corrupt communist regime is not apparently a qualification anymore, and dictatorships seem to only fall to be replaced by the messes we see in Libya and Iraq. So beyond anti-communism and anti-dictatorship, what is the US premise for retaliatory antagonism? Mere political disagreement?

If this is so, then the age-old agenda for America to have a US military base with access to a Chinese land border may be still the main goal in all of this...?
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