What is Kim Jung Un up to?

[Event Horizon]

Recently Kim Jung Un, leader of North Korea seems to have made a major alteration from his previous political trajectory. The word denuclearization has been used, and now he's meeting with the South Korean leader in the DMZ.

From all the warlike rhetoric replete with nuclear tests, he now seems to be actively improving relations abroad. This is a big departure from what we have grown to accept as a perpetually hostile state. What's changed? Does he now consider himself a world player?
Is it a genuine attempt to de-escalate tensions, to remove sanctions?
I wonder if they might be amenable to signing the nuclear non-proliferation treaty now.
Has it all been about the North gaining respect as a nation? They were badly mauled by American forces beyond what most people would imagine. The national psyche was disappointment, grief, paranoia, denial and everything you'd expect. I wonder, is the North starting to thaw, or is it a ploy? Kim Jung Un is a realist and very intelligent despite what people might think.

[toucana]

Here is one possible explanation for Kim Jong-un’s most recent change of course.

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2143171/north-koreas-nuclear-test-site-has-collapsed-and-may-be-why-kim-jong-un

I wrote something about this issue here a few months ago when reports about multiple tunnel collapses at the Korean nuclear test site first started appearing in Japanese news sources last October.

http://www.sciencechatforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=33745

The problem is that although Mantapsan is in a remote mountainous area, it is only about fifty miles from the border with China. The adjoining Chinese province of Jilin contains the Changbaishan mountain range which is an area of outstanding natural beauty, and is also the location of the popular Tianci Tourism hub.

Suffice to say, the Chinese authorities were not remotely pleased at the prospect of a radiological catastrophe on their own doorstep with prevailing winds blowing large quantites of radioactive dust over the border after Mount Mantap collapsed. (山 San/Shan means mountain in both Chinese and Korean).

The Chinese government allegedly sent a high-level delegation to North Korea just before Christmas and warned the North Korean regime that no more underground nuclear testing would be tolerated, and they threatened to terminate Kim’s regime if it continued.

The North Korean government have not yet finished the program of testing and development that would be required to fully miniaturise their thermonuclear weapons to the point where they can be fitted to viable ICBMs, and they are probably some distance away from achieving a MIRV (multiple independentlly targetable re-entry vehicle) capability too.

Kim Jong-un is therefore switching to a ‘Plan B’ diplomatic charm offensive.

BREAKING: North and South Korea will sign a peace treaty to formally end the Korean War this year

https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/north-korea-south-korea-summit-intl/index.html

[TheVat]

Agree that the "radioactive chimney" was likely a major factor in this sudden charm from Jong Un.

Hope Trump's handlers find a way to keep him from coming in and screwing it all up. Not too worried, though --looks like the Chinese know how to handle him.

[Event Horizon]

https://www.rt.com/news/425279-koreas-p ... ion-talks/

The RT network released the article above on Twitter. I think it's an interesting perspective, and probably accurate. They seem unusually optimistic. That is in itself fairly telling.

[TheVat]

RT?

The propaganda outlet for the Russian government? Not a source I would usually look to for accurate information.

YMMV.

[Event Horizon]

Yeah I know RT is a propaganda outlet, along with Tass, the BBC, the Sun / Daily mail, Whitehouse press office, Jerusalem Post, Electronic Intifada, Fox network and any number of others.

I find knowing what the opposition are saying from their perspective valuable at times. Russia has a good platform to view this by. Listening to other views than the ones we are unquestioningly spoon-fed by western media is useful.

How much have you seen on TV about the massacre of Palestinians by Israel in the mainstream press? 43 protesters have been killed and thousands injured. Or that the UN declared Israel a fascist, racist apartheid state?
It's attack on protesters is worse than the Tiananmen square massacre. Where is the outrage? Where is the coverage? Oh, actually the IDF have murdered 4 journalists covering the right of return march. Wounded 10 others so far. There you go.

Choose your propaganda outlet carefully, and sift thoroughly. Corroborate articles. Every country has its outlets, but often there is truth too, like Russian S300 AA missiles going to Syria. Like the tally of cruise missiles brought down by Syrian and Russian air defenses. Like Israeli attacks on Syria and Lebanon and Gaza.

Everyone has a perspective, everyone has a bias. Everyone gets fed propaganda. The difference is that some of us know it and allow for it. Being uninformed sheeple just plays into the governments hands. It is a challenging environment. We were told Iraq had WMD's. It was a lie. We are not entitled to take any moral high-ground any more than everyone else. Everyone is guilty. All one can do is try to take a balanced view.

This post probably deserves a thread of its own,

Best wishes, Horizon.

[toucana]

The US production company for RT America was recently compelled to register formally as a 'foreign agent' under FARA (Foreign Agents Registration Act) by the US Justice Department as of 13 November 2017.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/11/14/564045159/rt-america-firm-registers-as-foreign-agent-in-u-s-russia-looks-to-retaliate

Here in UK, RT have been cited numerous times by the Ofcom regulator for breaching rules on impartiality and for broadcasting 'materially misleading' content, most notably during recent weeks in respect of the Salisbury poisoning attack on the Skripals. Ofcom were reported to be studying another seven complaints about RT since the Novichok attack alone, and a total of 15 complaints since 2012.

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/apr/18/rt-ofcom-salisbury-poisoning-coverage

According to that report, Ofcom may well soon revoke RT's broadcast licence in UK.

The largest problem faced by RT in USA is that the editorial quality of their programming is so appalling, that no-one in their right mind ever tunes in and watches it, except by accident. It seems to be exclusively staffed by all the wash-outs and talentless dweebs who couldn't even get a gig on Fox News.

[TheVat]

Yeah I know RT is a propaganda outlet, along with Tass, the BBC, the Sun / Daily mail, Whitehouse press office, Jerusalem Post, Electronic Intifada, Fox network and any number of others.

I find knowing what the opposition are saying from their perspective valuable at times. Russia has a good platform to view this by. Listening to other views than the ones we are unquestioningly spoon-fed by western media is useful.

How much have you seen on TV about the massacre of Palestinians by Israel in the mainstream press? 43 protesters have been killed and thousands injured. Or that the UN declared Israel a fascist, racist apartheid state?
It's attack on protesters is worse than the Tiananmen square massacre. Where is the outrage? Where is the coverage? Oh, actually the IDF have murdered 4 journalists covering the right of return march. Wounded 10 others so far. There you go.

Choose your propaganda outlet carefully, and sift thoroughly. Corroborate articles. Every country has its outlets, but often there is truth too, like Russian S300 AA missiles going to Syria. Like the tally of cruise missiles brought down by Syrian and Russian air defenses. Like Israeli attacks on Syria and Lebanon and Gaza.

Everyone has a perspective, everyone has a bias. Everyone gets fed propaganda. The difference is that some of us know it and allow for it. Being uninformed sheeple just plays into the governments hands. It is a challenging environment. We were told Iraq had WMD's. It was a lie. We are not entitled to take any moral high-ground any more than everyone else. Everyone is guilty. All one can do is try to take a balanced view.

This post probably deserves a thread of its own,

Best wishes, Horizon.

I get news from a variety of international text-based sources, so am maybe not the most in need of those useful reminders. I was only suggesting a possible difference between RT and, say, Reuters or the NYT, in degree of fealty to a governmental POV. Indeed, US papers often have charters that specify a watchdog role as regards government policies. I don't quite get that feel from RT or Breitbart News or Fox. I think reputable journalism may still be discerned, and differentiated from, propaganda and partisan screed. My sources did report extensively on the nightmare for Palestinians, so I guess I must be avoiding those that you say are sweeping it under the rug.

[Forest_Dump]

IMHO, this is a classic case of Americans (and others) underestimating the other guy. In this case, North Korea. Trump elevated Kim Jung Un on the world stage and North Korea's political advisors, who are going to be as smart as anyone else, capitalized on the opportunities to score easy PR victories. Increasingly, and I predict this will continue, Kim Jung Un is able to raise his position and exposure on the world stage without actually having to do or give up anything. He can continue to look more and more like a world class statesman because and only because Trump can be counted on to continue to look like a bozo. That might actually be the real tragedy here. There might actually be real opportunities to make the world a better place but they will be lost or overlooked simply because to world is constantly distracted by a clown.

[Event Horizon]

Things are going at an unexpected pace. The North and South have aligned their clocks, they previously had a 1/2 hour difference in their time zones.

Also Kim Jung Un says he's going to invite the world to observe the closing of his Nuclear program. That his facilities are badly damaged probably helps, but he now sees himself as a peer on the world stage.

He also spoke of making the armistice with the South a proper peace treaty ending the war. This has been a bone of contention since 1953. Kim says if a peace treaty can be made with the South he can de-escalate military tensions.

Kim was also the first N. Korean official to cross the 39th parallel since 1953.

Donald Trump is claiming to have enabled the sudden change of political weather, and will visit in a month's time to consolidate things.

Kim also said he wanted the Korean peninsular to become a nuclear free zone.

The Chinese are probably very happy they are not at risk from nuclear war on their doorstep, and happier still that the North is ceasing weapons testing, which was a big concern.

It will be interesting to see how relations with Japan change.

[Event Horizon]

I find it really amusing that President Trump is so taken with Kim Jong Un's offer to destroy his nuclear testing facilities.

The fact is that a) The site is dangerously unstable now. An internal collapse measuring 4.2 on the Richter scale followed the final blast reducing the height of the mountain by 4 feet or thereabouts. I suspect the site is now unusable and is at risk of leaking radiation. Giving it up is no hardship.

B) Kim has perfected how to make viable bombs which do not actually require any more testing. It is true that he has not miniaturized his warheads to fit an ICBM as far as we know, but that in itself might not matter too much, the threat is enough.

I think this is a lot ado about nothing really, it materially changes nothing. I am surprised the US administration is so gullible, and full of praise, but welcome the effect it's having on diplomacy nonetheless.

[toucana]

Kim Jong-un inspecting a nuclear weapon - (September 2017)

There has been a good deal of discussion as to how far the North Korean engineers have got in terms of building a viable fusion boosted nuclear weapon that can be mounted inside an ICBM type missile.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-thermonuclear-ana/possible-two-stage-hydrogen-bomb-seen-game-changer-for-north-korea-idUSKCN1BE0PT

The widely circulated photo above published in September 2017 offers some of the clearest clues. Assuming it isn't a mock-up or model, it appears to show the following:
- A short cylindrical power supply unit that would also contain the firing control electronics.
- An electrical firing cord with a large multi-pin plug connected to a larger enclosure
- A spherical implosion sphere (probably a Pu239 pit with an initiator core)
- A narrower radiation pressure guide cylinder
- A dumb-bell shaped end housing the fusion fuel (Lithium deuteride, possibly with a U238 tamper)
Behind the bomb you can see the missile fairing and nose cone the bomb would be mounted inside.

One of the bigger challenges in designing an ICBM is to ensure that the weapon can survive the thermal and mechanical shock of atmospheric re-entry. A number of the North Korean test missiles have disintegrated in that phase according to Japanese and US monitoring.

[Event Horizon]

Thanks Toucana. I know the theory well enough, my dad was a nuclear physicist and I read the HMSO publications on how they build nukes at Aldermaston when I was 14. I'm quite impressed that you know your way around a nuke so well. The knowledge among members here is what kept bringing me back. There's no other site like it.

[toucana]

The new National Security Advisor and super-hawk John Bolton appears to have single-handedly wrecked next month’s high profile summit meeting between president Trump and North Korean president Kim Jong-un.

https://www.thedailybeast.com/north-korea-denounces-bolton-threatens-to-walk-away-from-trump-summit?ref=home?ref=home

Bolton appeared on ABC over the w/e and said that permanent, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization “has to happen before the benefits start to flow” to North Korea. “We want to see the denuclearization process so completely underway that it’s irreversible.”

In a statement carried by the North Korean news agency, obviously with Kim Jong Un’s approval, the first vice-minister of foreign affairs, Kim Kye Gwan feigned something close to heartbreak on hearing such “unbridled remarks” being “recklessly made” in the United States, and singled out Bolton in particular: “We do not hide our feeling of repugnance toward him.”

North Korea has now cancelled scheduled talks with the PM of South Korea citing the joint miltary exercise ‘Max Thunder’ being conducted with US armed forces as a reason, and have also withdrawn from a committment offering denuclearization of the Korean peninsula in advance of the meeting in June.

Looks like Trump and his supporters may have to put that Nobel Peace Prize nomination on hold.

[TheVat]

And the bloody puddles on the Gaza border may also have put off those picky folks in Stockholm.

[toucana]

USA- North Korea Commemorative Medallion

The special commemorative medallions struck to celebrate the historic summit meeting between president Trump and Kim Jong-un the president of North Korea are now on special offer at the White House online gift-shop at a discounted price of $19.95 (five bucks off the original $24.95), although the website appears to have crashed as collectors of bizarre and ridiculous memorabilia flock in.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-kim-summit-coin-collectible-punch-line-n877336

Shame about that Nobel Peace Prize Donald - maybe you can get one for 'Racketeering' instead ?

[Serpent]

Who expected Kim Jung Un to look this good on the world stage?
That Donald Trump is one helluva salesman!

[toucana]

In possibly the most comically ridiculous lie of his presidency, Donald Trump tweeted that the peace summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un might yet go ahead on 12 June after all.

Shortly afterwards it emerged that a member of Trump’s staff gave a background briefing to the White House press corps indicating that it would be logistically impossible to reschedule the talks on the original date. But when this was reported online by the New York Times, the president went off on a Twitter rampage:

“The Failing NY Times quotes ‘a senior White House official,’ who doesn’t exist, as saying “even if the meeting were reinstated, holding it on June 12 would be impossible, given the lack of time and the amount of planning needed.” WRONG AGAIN! Use real people, not phony sources.”

It took all of two minutes for other journalists to expose what had happened. Brian Karem of CNN tweeted:

“I was there. This was a background briefing given by a senior administration official in the briefing room! Matt Pottinger is the official. Introduced by Raj Shah. It happened in the briefing room. And there is audio available. The president lied. Since POTUS did not honor the agreement by claiming this was faked I do not have trouble naming the official.”

https://twitter.com/briankarem?lang=en

Multiple news sources in fact have audio recordings of what was said in their presence, and are not feeing shy about exposing this latest helping of presidential b/s.

https://twitter.com/search?q=New%20York%20Times&src=typd&lang=en

[Event Horizon]

I believe the meetings of North and South Korea today were an indication that they really want to end the war formally and reunite as much as possible. The thing is that Kim Jong Un and Trump both use a lot of simplistic hyperbole instead of what's realistically possible. That led to the recent cancellation of talks.
I would say that I now believe Kim is genuine about getting an agreement. We're really looking at an embryonic peace process, and the rules seem to still be under development. Trump and Kim badly overreacted.. Not very helpful really.

[Event Horizon]

It appears the south has been building bridges with the north as they have been doing for some time now in an effort to get nukes out of the north, an end to the war and eventual reunification which is a major issue for families caught on the wrong side of the 38th parallel.
The US is showing tentative interest, and it is hoped the stalled talks will be reanimated. I can't imagine these things happening under Kims' father, but I think Kim does genuinely want to sort things out now he has nukes to bargain with. He now thinks of himself as a world player, and that he should have his feet under the top table of the geopolitical players in the world.
I wish them all success.

[Event Horizon]

There is a hint that the talks with the US are going to be re-scheduled soon. The south has been heavily involved in re-interpreting the parameters. Kim wants to be a statesman, and Trump likes quick, no-nonsense deals. This is the start of some potentially very valuable processes that will play out in the near future.
As Churchill said,"This is not the beginning of the end, rather, it is the end of the beginning."

Let's face it. It was never going to be easy, and even less likely to be straightforward. ATM things are quiet, I'm not sure if they know what to reveal yet. I suspect a lot of talking is going on.

[toucana]

Is it just me? - or is that jumbo-sized letter from North Korea not calculated to make Trump's hands look abnormally small ?