sustainable biofuel: the great myth

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sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby TheVat on November 26th, 2018, 12:57 pm 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/20/maga ... e=Homepage

What oil palm plantations are doing to one of the planet's largest carbon sinks. Details the policies and the economics of developed countries mandating the use of biodiesel as "zero-carbon" fuel.
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby wolfhnd on November 26th, 2018, 1:40 pm 

Ethanol in Brazil is often sited as an example of bio fuel success but remains controversial because of habitat loss and other problems.

http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2011/ph240/halasz2/

Generally I'm concerned about the sustainability of intense agriculture of all types but that is another topic. Biofuels probably make sense in some areas as a byproduct of other agricultural production, say fermented feed. Growing corn to make ethanol makes no sense to me at all as a tax payer nor does subsidizing the diabetes epidemic. The problem is always momentum making it hard to change course. Government programs don't get fixed because the solution is always more will make it better.
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby zetreque on November 26th, 2018, 5:29 pm 

Biofuels are greenwashing for the most part.

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https://www.rainforest-rescue.org/petit ... -nor-green
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby BadgerJelly on November 27th, 2018, 2:18 am 

Things are looking decidedly bleak for Brasil now :(
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby wolfhnd on November 27th, 2018, 1:38 pm 

BadgerJelly » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:18 am wrote:Things are looking decidedly bleak for Brasil now :(


Not as bleak as in Venezuela :-)
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby BadgerJelly on November 28th, 2018, 11:34 am 

wolfhnd » November 28th, 2018, 1:38 am wrote:
BadgerJelly » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:18 am wrote:Things are looking decidedly bleak for Brasil now :(


Not as bleak as in Venezuela :-)


True, too true :(

I have to ask why the UN don’t step in and help out. Would it be unimaginable to step in and overthrow the government? Would it be worse or better to interfere?

My heart says get in there and get rid of the regime, but my head says it’ll probably end up worse - I don’t know enough about the situation but I know its dire.
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby doogles on November 28th, 2018, 6:36 pm 

This anonymous prediction turned up in my emails. I know who sent it, but no author is acknowledged.

Maybe biofuels will become irrelevant anyhow.


"Subject: Very Interesting Predictions----what happens in 2020 and beyond!

Wow. Will we live long enough to see all that happen? Can the brain absorb all this technology?

Future Predictions

Food for thought. . .for real . . .and scary too....pick your job carefully if you are young

The Future

Auto repair shops will go away.

A gasoline engine has 20,000 individual parts. An electrical motor has 20. Electric cars are sold with lifetime guarantees and are only repaired by dealers. It takes only 10 minutes to remove and replace an electric motor. Faulty electric motors are not repaired in the dealership but are sent to a regional repair shop that repairs them with robots. Your electric motor malfunction light goes on, so you drive up to what looks like a Jiffy-auto wash, and your car is towed through while you have a cup of coffee and out comes your car with a new electric motor!

Gasstations will go away. Parking meters will be replaced by meters that dispense electricity. Companies will install electrical recharging stations; in fact, they’ve already started. You can find them at select Dunkin Donuts locations.

Most (the smart) major auto manufacturers have already designated money to start building new plants that only build electric cars.

Coal industries will go away. Gasoline/oil companies will go away. Drilling for oil will stop. So say goodbye to OPEC!

Homes will produce and store more electrical energy during the day and then they use and will sell it back to the grid. The grid stores it and dispenses it to industries that are high electricity users. Has anybody seen the Tesla roof?

A baby of today will only see personal cars in museums.

The FUTURE is approaching faster than most of us can handle.

In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they went bankrupt. Who would have thought of that ever happening?

What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next 5-10 years and, most people don't see it coming.

Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later, you would never take pictures on film again? With today’s smart phones, who even has a camera these days?

Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen again (but much faster) with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.

Forget the book, “Future Shock”, welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Software has disrupted and will continue to disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

UBER is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world!

Ask any taxi driver if they saw that coming.

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties. Ask Hilton Hotels if they saw that coming.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the USA, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for right now, the basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans. So, if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% fewer lawyers in the future, (what a thought!) only omniscient specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, its 4 times more accurate than human nurses.

Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self-driving cars are already here. In the next 2 years, the entire industry will start to be disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore as you will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it you will only pay for the driven distance and you can be productive while driving. The very young children of today will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.

This will change our cities, because we will need 90-95% fewer cars. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.

1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide including distracted or drunk driving. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles; with autonomous driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles. That will save a million lives plus worldwide each year.

Most traditional car companies will doubtless become bankrupt. Traditional car companies will try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Look at what Volvo is doing right now; no more internal combustions engines in their vehicles starting this year with the 2019 models, using all electric or hybrid only, with the intent of phasing out hybrid models.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla and so they should be. Look at all the companies offering all electric vehicles. That was unheard of, only a few years ago.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because, without accidents, the costs will become cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move farther away to live in a more beautiful or affordable neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2030. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Cities will have much cleaner air as well. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean.

Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

And it’s just getting ramped up.

Fossil energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that simply cannot continue - technology will take care of that strategy.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it. It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will identify nearly any Disease. There are dozens of phone apps out there right now for health purposes.

WELCOME TO TOMORROW – it actually arrived a few years ago."
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby wolfhnd on November 28th, 2018, 6:50 pm 

BadgerJelly » Wed Nov 28, 2018 3:34 pm wrote:
wolfhnd » November 28th, 2018, 1:38 am wrote:
BadgerJelly » Tue Nov 27, 2018 6:18 am wrote:Things are looking decidedly bleak for Brasil now :(


Not as bleak as in Venezuela :-)


True, too true :(

I have to ask why the UN don’t step in and help out. Would it be unimaginable to step in and overthrow the government? Would it be worse or better to interfere?

My heart says get in there and get rid of the regime, but my head says it’ll probably end up worse - I don’t know enough about the situation but I know its dire.


The discussion on bio fuel and how it is not the panacea some people were hoping for is probably just a reflection on a broader issue of how the world has just entered a new phase. We have almost unlimited access to existing knowledge that can be retrieved as fast as we can query it. The old saying that the more you know the more you realize you don't know may be relevant. In another thread I tried to explore the impact of complexity. Every topic has become a bottomless pit that you can be swallowed up in and if you escape one another one opens up. With the death of god the last vestiges of certainty died. In the vacuum created by uncertainty politics and cat videos have become the new religions. In the old world people just acted, Teddy Roosevelt decided he was going to build a canal in Panama so he did. There were no environmental studies, economic impact studies, little gnashing of teeth over indigenous rights, and most political dissension was silenced by the grandeur of the project. It was a world of ignorance that you can be almost nostalgic for.

I feel that if people were honest with themselves they would admit that they don't know what the best solutions to environmental problems may be or how to balance the demands of nature with the economic needs of individual humans. Having more information means considering more consequences it doesn't make the decision making any easier. It doesn't help that we have developed an aversion to risk.
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby wolfhnd on November 28th, 2018, 6:59 pm 

doogles » Wed Nov 28, 2018 10:36 pm wrote:This anonymous prediction turned up in my emails. I know who sent it, but no author is acknowledged.

Maybe biofuels will become irrelevant anyhow....



Once again we seem to have come to the same point. I was just typing my reply and then your post showed up. I would like to quibble over the details but they are unimportant other than to say post industrial is kind of misleading. What is important is, as predicted in "Future Shock", people are not coping all that well. It seems they are more interested in satisfying their instincts than embracing the "golden age". You don't get the revolution without a lot of pain.
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Re: sustainable biofuel: the great myth

Postby TheVat on November 30th, 2018, 11:05 pm 

Note: Wolfhound has requested his account deactivated. Per this member, this does not relate to any particular recent postings. I have no further information.
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