covid-19 epidemiologic data

[TheVat]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... ospital-da

Wonder why the administration wants more control of this type of data. Hmm.

[charon]

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=35905&p=351657#p351657

[TheVat]

https://epi.ufl.edu/articles/silent-tra ... id-19.html

Half of transmission is silent.

The new model estimates that even if all cases of people with symptoms are immediately isolated, the disease will continue to spread stealthily via symptomless infections. This means that many people are silently transmitting the virus and driving the pandemic’s spread—either because they do not yet know they are ill, or because they are asymptomatic carriers who are infectious but never develop symptoms.

“The single biggest lesson of this is that we need to prioritize contact tracing,” Singer says. “Without that, we won’t get any traction against the virus. But the question is, where will it be most effective?”

[Serpent]

From the

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/07/17/892357733/with-cdc-pulled-off-data-collection-some-states-lose-access-to-covid-hospital-da

Wonder why the administration wants more control of this type of data.

Besides that redacting opportunity?
from that article:

The Trump administration had said the reporting change was needed because of reporting delays and other problems with the CDC.

I suspect it's more the "other problems", as delay doesn't seem to be an issue for this administration.

So - with unfamiliar and sometimes incompatible platforms, overwork, overstressed human and computing capability, being rushed into the change and garbled information through crossed lines of communication - whatever arrives will be approximate at best. Where, precisely, do the reports arrive? Who sees it first? Who decides what to do with it?

Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the C.D.C. director, and José Arrieta, the chief information officer for the Department of Health and Human Services — defended the decision in a conference call with reporters, saying that the new database was necessary to expedite and streamline data, which is used to help the government make decisions about where to deploy personal protective gear or drugs like remdesivir https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/us/politics/coronavirus-database.html.

Oh, I see. To decide which [friendly] states get first dibs on resources and which [nasty] ones, get left out in the cold. That makes sense.

Plus: ""Here's ten million. I want you to do us a favor, though..."

But the officials had no explanation for the TeleTracking contract, which was awarded on a sole-source basis, federal records show. Mr. Arrieta said he was not involved in the contract negotiations. The company did not respond to emails seeking comment.

[/quote]

[toucana]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2uLJkpH__os

Within the next two weeks, USA will reach 4 million known cases of COVID-19 infections

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/22/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

The tabulation below shows that the time interval between each million cases is now *halving*.

January 21 —> First reported case in USA

April 29 —> I million cases in USA —> 99 days

June 10 —> 2 million cases in USA —> 43 days

July 8 —> 3 million cases in USA —> 28 days

August 5 —> 4 million cases (projected) —> 14 days

[TheVat]

No one who has parented small children will be surprised to learn about these new findings....

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamape ... le/2768952

Children are susceptible to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) but generally present with mild symptoms compared with adults.1 Children drive spread of respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses in the population,2 but data on children as sources of SARS-CoV-2 spread are sparse.

Early reports did not find strong evidence of children as major contributors to SARS-CoV-2 spread,3 but school closures early in pandemic responses thwarted larger-scale investigations of schools as a source of community transmission. As public health systems look to reopen schools and day cares, understanding transmission potential in children will be important to guide public health measures. Here, we report that replication of SARS-CoV-2 in older children leads to similar levels of viral nucleic acid as adults, but significantly greater amounts of viral nucleic acid are detected in children younger than 5 years.

[toucana]

The BBC Persian language service has published a report claiming that nearly three times as many people have died in Iran from COVID-19 than the Iranian government has admitted to.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-53598965

The information is said to have come from a whistle-blower within the Iranian government, and it includes large amounts of detail such as independently verifiable names and dates of daily hospital admissions and subsequent deaths.

The government's own records appear to show almost 42,000 people died with Covid-19 symptoms up to 20 July, versus 14,405 reported by its health ministry.

The number of people known to be infected is also almost double official figures: 451,024 as opposed to 278,827.

In recent weeks, it has suffered a second steep rise in the number of cases.

The first death in Iran from Covid-19 was recorded on 22 January, according to lists and medical records that have been passed to the BBC. This was almost a month before the first official case of coronavirus was reported there.

Tehran, the capital, has the highest number of deaths with 8,120 people who died with Covid-19 or symptoms similar to it.

The city of Qom, the initial epicentre of the virus in Iran, is worst hit proportionally, with 1,419 deaths - that is one death with Covid-19 for every 1,000 people.

It is notable that, across the country, 1,916 deaths were non-Iranian nationals. This indicates a disproportionate number of deaths amongst migrants and refugees, who are mostly from neighbouring Afghanistan.

Lockdown measures were imposed over the Nowruz (Iranian New Year) holidays at the end of the third week in March, and there was a corresponding decline in cases and deaths.

But as government restrictions were relaxed, the cases and deaths started to rise again after late-May.

Crucially the first recorded death on the leaked list occurred on 22 January, a month before the first case of coronavirus was officially reported in Iran.

At the time Health Ministry officials were adamant in acknowledging not a single case of coronavirus in the country, despite reports by journalists inside Iran, and warnings from various medical professionals.

In 28 days until the first official acknowledgement on 19 February, 52 people had already died.

The start of outbreak coincided both with the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution and with parliamentary elections.

These were major opportunities for the Islamic Republic to demonstrate its popular support and not risk damaging it because of the virus.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader, accused some of wanting to use the coronavirus to undermine the election.

[TheVat]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/25/health/c ... index.html

Based on a pre-print, not yet peer reviewed, but does provoke thought on the potential scale of "superspreader" events.

And has a touch of irony, which I probably don't need to point out.

[toucana]

A motorcycle rally held in South Dakota in August and attended by hundreds of thousands of Americans from across the country is linked to more than 260,000 Covid-19 cases recorded in the US since 2 August (almost 20% of new cases in the past month) a new study suggests, with researchers describing the event as a "worst-case scenario" for spreading the disease.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-almost-20-cases-past-month-stem-controversial-motorcycle-rally-research-claims-b420887.html

Between 7 and 16 August, around 450,000 people from across the states flocked to Sturgis for the annual 10-day Sturgis Motorcycle Rally, which featured several concerts and was held despite cases soaring across the country. Last week, a 60-year-old man with underlying health conditions was the first known person thought to have died with coronavirus having attended the event.

The study, by San Diego State University's Center for Health Economics & Policy Studies, estimates that the 260,000 figure represents around 19 per cent of all virus infections reported in the US between 2 August and 2 September.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

As part of their study, the reserchers tracked anonymised mobile phone data that showed “smartphone pings from non-residents” and “foot traffic at restaurants and bars, retail establishments, entertainment venues, hotels and campgrounds each rose substantially.”

Using that data and linking it to corresponding rises in Covid-19 cases, the researchers - aided by a team of economists - calculated that the public health cost associated with treating the infections was in the region of $12.2 billion (£11.1bn). "This is enough to have paid each of the estimated 462,182 rally attendees $26,553.64 not to attend," the researchers claim.

It is understood that the annual festival, which went ahead with the blessing of South Dakota governor, Kristi Noem - an ardent Donald Trump supporter - generates somewhere in the region of $800 (£618) million in revenue. Festival attendees did not wear face coverings or practise social distancing while at the event, The Associated Press reported at the time.

[toucana]

A blunder that saw 16,000 UK positive Covid-19 tests go missing was caused by failing to replace software an astonishing 13 years out of date, experts believe.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/coronavirus-missing-tests-microsoft-excel-matt-hancock-b859322.html

The version of Microsoft Excel used – known as XLS – was superseded back in 2007, but was still being deployed by Public Health England’s systems.

It could handle only about 65,000 rows of data, rather than the million-plus that the newer software XLSX is capable of – which meant any additional test results were silently lopped off.

The revelation will pile further pressure on Matt Hancock, the health secretary, who has refused to discuss details of the fiasco, or explain why modern software was not used.

One expert told the BBC that even a high-school computing student would have known that better alternatives to XLS existed.

“Excel was always meant for people mucking around with a bunch of data for their small company to see what it looked like,” said Professor Jon Crowcroft from the University of Cambridge.

“And then when you need to do something more serious, you build something bespoke that works. There’s dozens of other things you could do – but you wouldn’t use XLS, nobody would start with that.”

Downing Street has launched an inquiry into the mistake, which has left tens of thousands of contacts of positive Covid cases still untraced.

[Serpent]

Have we all seen this one yet?
https://www.propublica.org/article/inside-the-fall-of-the-cdc?utm_source=pocket-newtab

n interviews and internal correspondence, CDC employees recounted the stunning fall of the agency many of them had spent their careers building. Some had served on the front lines of the CDC’s most storied battles and had an earned confidence that they could swoop in and save the world from the latest plague, whether it was E. coli on a fast-food burger or Ebola in a distant land. Theirs was the model other nations copied. Their leaders were the public faces Americans turned to for the unvarnished truth. They’d served happily under Democrats and Republicans.

Now, 10 months into the crisis, many fear the CDC has lost the most important currency of public health: trust, the confidence in experts that persuades people to wear masks for the public good, to refrain from close-packed gatherings, to take a vaccine.

....

Early in the outbreak, the lack of widespread testing had caused a shortage of data, obscuring the agency’s vision as the virus spread in Washington state, New York and New Jersey. The CDC updated its well-regarded hospital tracking system to collect information about COVID.

But in a startling power play this spring, the Trump administration stripped the CDC of its lead role in handling this vital hospital data, bringing in a private contractor that would struggle to gather reliable information. The unprecedented move, CDC scientists and public health specialists said, struck at the heart of the agency’s mission.

[TheVat]

Bumping this thread up.

[Serpent]

Why? The only two new sort-of-new things I know of are the post-opening surge https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/10/30/coronavirus-covid-live-updates-us/
and the recent announcement that having recovered from it once doesn't necessarily provide a patient with immunity.
Both are pretty bad news -- for the economy.

[Serpent]

I thought this was interesting: nations rated on their handling of of the pandemic.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-resilience-ranking/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

[charon]

It is interesting.

US - 18
UK - 28

Canada's at 13 but I see France is way down the list at 45. Japan, however, comes in at no. 2 which is interesting. Apparently that's because of an earlier outbreak of TB so they had a contact/trace system more or less set up already.

Taiwan is at 3. Apparently that's because they got early 'whispers' of it from neighbouring China.

It's not a surprise that New Zealand tops the list because they reacted so swiftly. They locked down and shut the borders before the thing had barely started.

[Serpent]

Japan, however, comes in at no. 2 which is interesting. Apparently that's because of an earlier outbreak of TB so they had a contact/trace system more or less set up already.

Taiwan is at 3. Apparently that's because they got early 'whispers' of it from neighbouring China.

It's not a surprise that New Zealand tops the list because they reacted so swiftly. They locked down and shut the borders before the thing had barely started.

The key factors in effective response: solid medical information; fast, comprehensive government action; consistent application of rules and popular compliance. The government needs to take decisive action and the people need to trust their government.

[charon]

solid medical information; fast, comprehensive government action; consistent application of rules and popular compliance. The government needs to take decisive action and the people need to trust their government.

If only.

I'd move to New Zealand except they wouldn't let me in :-)

[Serpent]

If everybody who wants to move there were allowed in, it NZ would soon look like Pyst. (You're probably too young to have played Myst.)

Anyway, back on topic, this just in:
CBC has a site that tells you what's in the works and how far along.
https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/coronavirusvaccinetracker/

[edy420]

I've been travelling around NZ with wifey while the tourists are kept out. Tourist attractions are cheaper, it's easier to book a room, and places to eat aren't so packed.

Last weekend we booked a motel for two nights in Rotorua, the tourism capitol of NZ. Its so strange not seeing busses of Asians everywhere.

In the beginning everyone was scared, wore masks, socially distanced etc. People would look at you angrily if you coughed or sneezed. But now it's like no one cares. We have the odd outbreak but it's kept under control pretty quickly.

We have a covid tracker app, and most shops have a scanner image. If you use it, it can tell you if you were in close proximate if there is another outbreak.

We have different levels of lock down. Last outbreak was in Auckland, so they went into lock down level 3, and the rest of NZ went into level 2 for bout a month.

Level 3 shuts down everything accept for essential services, and has a curfew. Level 2 is strict social distancing, masks etc. Level 1 is basically just being more aware and alert with social distancing.

Is there any protocols like this over seas, or is it just straight lock down?

[toucana]

Rebekah Jones, a Florida based data scientist who was originally fired from her Department of Health job for refusing to manipulate data on her well respected COVID-19 dashboard, has now had her home raided by armed police apparently on the orders of Florida Governor Ron de Santis.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/12/07/florida-police-raid-rebekah-jones-scientist-covid-dashboard/6483329002/

The article includes a CCTV clip of her and her family (including children) being threatened at gun-point by officers who confiscated her computers and back-ups while executing a search warrant for what appears to be an entirely frivolous and specious complaint concocted by the Florida authorities to shut down her COVID-19 dashboard once again.

[toucana]

A judicial commissioner called Ron Filipowksi has just resigned his job in protest at the armed police raid on the home of Rebekah Jones, and has published his letter of resignation which excoriates Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for his handling of the pandemic in general, and his persecution of Rebekah Jones in particular.

https://twitter.com/RonGOPVet4Biden/status/1336339189374152704?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1336339189374152704%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.palmerreport.com%2Fanalysis%2Fappointee-ron-desantis-protest-of-desantis-psychotic-behavior-toward-whistleblower%2F34697%2F

[Serpent]

Good for him!
More vertebrates needed.

[toucana]

Rebekah Jones told Chris Cuomo of CNN that this was most likely a fishing expedition organised by DeSantis that was targeting her possible contacts in Florida's DOH rather than herself.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/07/us/florida-search-warrant-raid-rebekah-jones-invs/

The legal officer Ron Filipkowski who resigned in protest over the raid is a lifelong Republican. He is also a marine veteran and a former state and federal prosecutor, according to the Tampa Bay Times

https://www.tampabay.com/news/florida-politics/2020/12/08/gop-lawyer-resigns-over-treatment-of-florida-data-analyst/

Rebekah Jones who has been crowd-funding her independent COVID-19 dashboard since being fired from her DOH job some six months ago has seen her Twitter following double instantly within 24 hours of this raid, the warrant for which was signed by a newly appointed judge with no previous criminal experience, as his very first act on the bench.

https://twitter.com/GeoRebekah

Presumably Governor Ron DeSantis and his staff had never heard of the 'Streisand effect'.

[toucana]

A fascinating follow-up on this Florida raid has been posted by Ars Technica

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/12/florida-posted-the-password-to-a-key-disaster-system-on-its-website/

Florida police said a raid they conducted Monday on the Tallahassee home of Rebekah Jones, a data scientist who the state fired from her job in May, was part of an investigation into an unauthorized access of a state emergency-responder system. It turns out, however, that not only do all state employees with access to that system share a single username and password, but also those credentials are publicly available on the Internet for anyone to read.

According to Ars Technica, a link to the relevant ESF-8 Group manual and all the log-in details was publicly available in a Reddit thread that was flagged up to them, and found to be still fully live and functional at the time of publication - (Redacted image below)

[Serpent]

And if there's any legal and/or media blow-back over this flagrant abuse of power, the repugs will scream "Witchunt!"

[TheVat]

I had not heard of the Streisand Effect, but was familiar with the concept, just didn't know it was called that. Florida is a state that's long been a haven for Trumpian politicians and corrupt dealing in general. Crime novelists like Carl Hiaasen have built entire careers on Florida's scoundrel-friendly climate.

I hope Filipowski stays there and can find ways to help the Republican party purge itself of the current plague of corruption and anti-science idiocy.

[toucana]

The Streisand effect is a social phenomenon that occurs when an attempt to hide, remove, or censor information has the unintended consequence of further publicizing that information, often via the Internet. It is named after American entertainer Barbra Streisand, whose attempt to suppress the California Coastal Records Project's photograph of her residence in Malibu, California, taken to document California coastal erosion, inadvertently drew further attention to it in 2003.

Mike Masnick of Techdirt coined the term in 2005 in relation to a holiday resort issuing a takedown notice to urinal.net (a site dedicated to photographs of urinals) over use of the resort's name.

"How long is it going to take before lawyers realize that the simple act of trying to repress something they don't like online is likely to make it so that something that most people would never, ever see (like a photo of a urinal in some random beach resort) is now seen by many more people? Let's call it the Streisand Effect."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streisand_effect

The row over this incident is set to escalate because in the light of the article by Ars Technica, it now appears that the search warrant that provoked this raid was entirely fraudulent to start with. Someone actually lied to a judge to obtain it - and that will mean big trouble - hopefully for Governor Ron DeSantis.

[TheVat]

DeSantis continues his campaign of data suppression....

https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronav ... story.html

Between him and Gov. Kristi Noem and the other Trump clones it appears to be a race to the bottom.

[TheVat]

One more data point:

I am recovering from covid, the miserable version that goes straight to the intestines and muscles. Mental fog occasionally, so please PM me if I overlook anything that needs admin looking over.

I live in the state which now has, with our neighbor, North Dakota, the highest rate of covid in the nation.
And, gasp, a large contingent of pro-Trump and anti-maskers, led by a governor who has refused to issue a mask mandate law and seems to be courting a national Trumpista profile.

[toucana]

Oh Good Lord :-/

Stay safe TheVAT

We're not done with you yet !