Pandemic issues - defining success

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Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby Faradave on November 5th, 2020, 5:43 pm 

toucana wrote:This was underlined by another AP votecast poll today, which said that only 4 in 10 voters regarded the pandemic as their ‘top concern’.
I've tried several times to make myself afraid of covid and failed. People die everyday. There's still work to be done. If myriad essential workers have to face up to that, the so shall I.

Part of flattening the curve means that different states must peak at different times, and a prolonged propagation through the population at large. What you're seeing is a sign that we've succeeded. The alternative is every body who's going to, gets sick in March. Not a pretty picture.

That's not to say I have no respect for covid. I still consider it a valuable fire drill for whatever nature (or an enemy) might care to hurl at us next. A lot of kinks have been worked out of the systems.
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Re: Biden Win Projected In Michigan

Postby toucana on November 5th, 2020, 7:16 pm 

Faradave wrote:
Part of flattening the curve means that different states must peak at different times, and a prolonged propagation through the population at large. What you're seeing is a sign that we've succeeded.

Succeeded in what exactly ?

The U.S. just reported 103,087 new daily coronavirus infections on Wednesday, setting a single-day record for cases, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.

https://www.axios.com/record-cases-coro ... c4e0e.html

It’s the first time the U.S. has reported over 100,000 new cases in a single day, and it can’t be written off as an artifact of testing either, as hospitalisations are increasing at a significantly higher rate than the number of tests being carried out.

Taking a look at the wider picture, the U.S.A has around 4% of the world’s population, but has consistently reported over 25% of the known Coronavirus infections in the world .

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/30/heal ... index.html

If that’s a success, then I hate to imagine what a failure looks like.
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Re: Biden Win Projected In Michigan

Postby TheVat on November 5th, 2020, 7:56 pm 

A bit off-topic so I will move those two posts over next to the covid threads in science news.

I don't see any need to be fearful of covid, if public health policy gives priority to reasonable and well-demonstrated measures like masks, social distance, crowd limits, ventilation, etc. If you look at nations where such measures were implemented and a spirit of civic duty imparted by good leadership, the contrast is pretty obvious.
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Re: Biden Win Projected In Michigan

Postby Serpent on November 5th, 2020, 7:59 pm 

And people who have previously recovered are getting er-infected -- possibly with an even more aggressive iteration of the virus -- so herd immunity's pretty much off the table. But, hey, what's a few hundred thousand dead people compared to a decline in the stock market?
Vaccine is the only hope, and the first effective one may be coming from





China .
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Re: Every dog has its day.

Postby Faradave on November 6th, 2020, 12:07 am 

toucana wrote:Succeeded in what exactly ?
Succeeded in not having everyone sick before ramping up ventilators, personal protection and even toilet tissue. That's all flattening the curve does. It recognizes that the virus will not be effectively contained before herd immunity is established one way or another. Lot's (i.e. the majority) of people sick with covid report doing protections by the book. Nature finds a way through.

I don't want to seem insensitive. Some people are much more apprehensive about microbial threat than others. Could be a big survival advantage. And circling the wagons around the most vulnerable makes good sense. But I come from a multigenerational healthcare professions family. Our instinct is one of distain rather than fear. When we learn of disease our primary urge is to attack.

It may seem crazy when a dog goes after a bear but that's instinct. It works out OK more often than you'd think.
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby Serpent on November 6th, 2020, 1:45 am 

I wonder how that instinctive response translates to a national policy.
That seems to depend very largely on who formulates policy.

Some nations fared better than others. https://www.movehub.com/blog/best-and-worst-covid-responses/ The chief reasons seem to be: preparation, effective agencies, early response, decisive action, co-operation by the populace.

Back in Obama times, the US had a pandemic preparedness plan, worked out in the wake of a couple of epidemics that turned out to be less aggressive than this one. Scientists have been expecting the 'bad one' for some time; most developed nations formed some kind of plan. Most western ones were not as effective as they might have been - and it would certainly be in our long-term interest to figure out why, and how they can be better. I don't know how good the American plan was, because Trump scrapped it about a year into his administration. So, when the bad one came, the US had its pants down around its shoes, while most of us were able, at least, to hobble away and cover the most vulnerable parts in a timely manner.

The two fatal - at least for 235,000 Americans - mistakes appear to be: hesitation and indecision at the first threat and relaxing vigilance prematurely. The first may be due to simple incompetence; the second is generally a question of values. Driven by the movement of money. Caused by a fatally - for the entire planet - flawed concept of economy.

It's quite reasonable, from a certain very detached POV, to let the infection land where it will and carry on with whoever is left standing when the plague's done. Last couple of times, we more than made up the lost population in the following century. In a century from now, it might all be fine again... but i can equally well imagine a world of half-naked savages bludgeoning one another over the rags and tatters of our civilization.
I think we ought to be able to do better, but I honestly don't know whether we can.
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby toucana on November 7th, 2020, 12:15 am 

The problem with a number of the arguments offered here is that the rate of COVID-19 infections reported in USA is currently ramping sharply *up* not down, and the most alarming increases are happening in those areas populated mainly by conservatives who have been listening exclusively to Trump and Fox News for their information.

On Wednesday, the total number of new cases of COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 100,000 for the first time. Which was a shocking total … until Thursday, when the total passed 120,000 cases. With that number, even the seven-day moving average of new cases is now over 100,000. This isn’t a “spike,” or a “surge”—it’s a tsunami. 

But even though the flood of new cases is sweeping across the whole nation, driving up hospitalizations and bringing more than 1,000 deaths a day, it’s not sinking everyone equally. Because even a cursory review of the information shows that both the counties where the coronavirus is spreading most rapidly and the counties where there are more cases by population are counties that voted for Donald Trump. And a new study makes it clear that this isn’t coincidental. It’s also not a matter of some factor that lies outside of human control. The reason that red states and Trump-supporting counties are getting COVID-19 at a higher rate is specifically because they are populated by Trump supporters. And it’s killing them.

As the Associated Press reports, the data available from Johns Hopkins, WorldOMeters, and other tracking sites makes it clear that the highest level of COVID-19 is not where a casual observer might expect. The worst locations aren’t in high-density cities, or in areas where there’s a high level of travel. They are small, rural counties. In fact, most of them are rural counties in rural states like Iowa, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. 

And 93% of the counties with the worst rates of coronavirus infection voted for Donald Trump. In fact, they voted overwhelmingly for Trump. And the worse the infection, the more dire the local situation, the more likely they were to vote for Trump.

Trump counties practiced less social distancing. People in those counties were also less likely to wear masks. And, again mirroring the AP data, the more a county supported Trump, the worse it was on these safety measures. People in Trump counties were more likely to ignore stay-at-home orders. They were more likely to ignore mask mandates. They were less likely to practice safe social distancing. And even as the disease was spreading, this partisan divide was getting worse.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/11/6/1993375/-As-COVID-19-surges-conservatives-are-paying-a-deadly-price-for-listening-to-Trump-and-Fox-News


For nearly six months the Trump administration and their state level proxies have chosen to abandon science altogether, and have treated the threat of COVID-19 by gaslighting it as a political wedge issue that could be used to consolidate their support among conservatives.

Back in April Bob Woodward recorded interviews with the Trump administration in which it was disclosed that his son-in-law Jared Kushner had boasted about “wrestling control of the country back from the scientists”.

This is not a recipe for ’success’. Nor is the idea of fearlessly staring a pandemic down by looking at in the eyes in a manly way any more scientific than president Trump’s own lunatic notion of wearing a superman T-shirt under his suit when he was released from Walter Reed after being treated for Coronavirus, so that he could rip off his shirt and tie and strut his ‘immunity’ around in front of the cameras.

As things stand, there are fears among real scientists that this pandemic will become fully exponential again right around Thanksgiving, and that US citizens will have a ‘Black Friday’ fo remember for a long time.
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby Serpent on November 7th, 2020, 9:43 am 

Let's hope the 'miraculous' disappearance of Trump's lead is more real than the 'miraculous' disappearance of the virus. His cultists don't seem to be aware of this - or any other - irony.

Even so, there can be no change in administrative direction until mid-January of next year, by which time many more Americans will have died and even more will have suffered needlessly. Add a three-month long temper tantrum at the pinnacle of power - and who knows where-all else... A great deal of damage will yet be done before the situation can even start improving.

It's a very dark winter ahead!
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby charon on November 7th, 2020, 2:05 pm 

I suppose staff can refuse to obey stupid orders. They might have to resign or be sacked but being fired by Trump is a badge of honour :-)

https://www.lawfareblog.com/can-departm ... use-orders
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby Serpent on November 7th, 2020, 3:40 pm 

I'm sure many who are not down with Covid are drafting resignation letters; many more will be sacked anyway whether they refuse orders or not. But some will obey gleefully and some will offer even more imaginative suggestion for "getting even". Never underestimate the evil that lurks in toadies.
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Re: Pandemic issues - defining success

Postby toucana on November 17th, 2020, 5:48 pm 

This is a rather jaw-dropping news segment from CNN in which Alisyn Camerota is talking with an ER nurse called Jodi Doering who treats COVID-19 patients in South Dakota. She recently attracted viral media attention after tweeting about some recent experiences with her patients.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/us/2020/11/16/south-dakota-nurse-intv-newday-vpx.cnn

A number of these patients flatly refuse to believe that they have COVID-19. Even when they are actually dying of it, they still think "it's a hoax". They say "it can't be real", and they insist they must be suffering from something else.

Not even when their PCR tests come back positive, and their blood oxygen saturations are heading below 75% and into realms incompatible with life, will these patients abandon their conspiracy theory delusions about this pandemic. In some cases the only time they shut up is when they are being anaesthetised for intubation.

The nurse has described her experiences as being like a ****ing non-stop horror movie.
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