### Re: What are the odds of life Abiogenesis by chance ?

by **thehedglin** on May 31st, 2017, 4:20 pm

Using statistical odds to determine the likelihood of something that may have already occurred is not generally helpful in any context, and it is also one of the worse ways to determine if something actually did occur. Let us say I randomly gave you just FIVE cards from a standard deck of 52:

52*51*50*49*48= 311,875,200 possible permutations of sequence AND order.

If we disregard order and simply focus on the cards, we still have 2,598,960 possible hands. This means EVERY SINGLE TIME you draw five cards from a 52 card deck you have a 1 in 2,598,960 of getting THAT exact hand of cards. Yet you are guaranteed to get one of those 1 in 2,598,960 hands every single time you draw.

So, no, using statistical odds aren't that helpful in the domain in which you are applying it. Especially considering the astronomically improbable, like your birth, happen constantly. Furthermore, statistics does not function as straightforwardly as people THINK it does. For instance, do you know the probability of a true positive on a blood test with 95% accuracy for a disease with a 1% prevalence in the population?

Hint: It isn't 5%.