Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on February 27th, 2019, 1:36 am 

Lol, you guys sound like a couple of Catholic oldskoolers at the beginning of the scientific revolution.

A big whale or an elephant have way more neurons in their bodies than humans do, so why do we 'own' this planet that we're on?

Not because of brain power as much as our ADAPTABILITY.

The system changes, power shifts, and we stay standing on our surfboards lookin cool ~ well, those of us who prioritise that dimension of our species, anyway....

I'd say that AI is perhaps a lesser worry when polar bears are invading Russia and a giant iceberg twice the size of NYC is about to break loose and float away...
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby BadgerJelly on February 27th, 2019, 2:42 am 

Moss -

Well, we are living at the beginning of the first truly global revolution. It is kind of a big deal.

The things that concern me the most are actually being dealt with relatively successfully so I’m quite positive about the future in that respect - but given the rate of change due to technological developments I am certainly wary about where we might end up.

Anyway, I’m just some relatively dumb nobody doing my tiny part as best I can. I’m more excited about the future than worried about it - but hopefully not naive enough to shoot myself in the foot! :)

As for elephants and whales ... quality not quantity! Elephants and whales are basically ignorant compared to you and me.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on February 27th, 2019, 9:38 am 

Mossling » February 27th, 2019, 12:36 am wrote:Lol, you guys sound like a couple of Catholic oldskoolers at the beginning of the scientific revolution.

A big whale or an elephant have way more neurons in their bodies than humans do, so why do we 'own' this planet that we're on?

Not because of brain power as much as our ADAPTABILITY.

The system changes, power shifts, and we stay standing on our surfboards lookin cool ~ well, those of us who prioritise that dimension of our species, anyway....

I'd say that AI is perhaps a lesser worry when polar bears are invading Russia and a giant iceberg twice the size of NYC is about to break loose and float away...

What's the number of neurons got to do with anything?
Even the coolest-looking surfer can wipe out.
Putting adaptability in all caps doesn't answer any of the legitimate questions, and comparing one product of the industrial revolution to another in severity of outcome is even less helpful.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 1st, 2019, 11:05 pm 

ADAPTABILITY

lol, yes that is all that is needed here.

Joking aside, what I was trying to point you towards was an evolutionary 'unconscious' factor that is responsible for the human success we see all over the planet and which is now travelling to other planets - something no other organism we know of is capable of doing.

And so I think you can trust that unconscious process here - that we WILL adapt and rebalance ourselves no matter the terrestrial challenges that face us. Not even extra-terrestrial challenges, though considerable, will obstruct us, as we make more space stations and more and more ventures further afield.

There are too many factors to model at present concerning the future, however, and when the balance will tip - towards fruit-picking robots replacing whole workforces and vehicles' sensors being powerful enough to be reliable on 'autopilot,' and so on... so I think it's pointless to speculate too much ~ and especially pointless to speculate based on current infrastructure solutions.

But two things are seemingly for sure:

1) Automation will continue to increase.
2) Significant numbers of jobs will be lost and not replaced.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 1st, 2019, 11:16 pm 

Mossling » March 1st, 2019, 10:05 pm wrote:
But two things are seemingly for sure:

1) Automation will continue to increase.
2) Significant numbers of jobs will be lost and not replaced.

Obviously.
And you think this unconscious adaptability (I.e. trust in providence and do nothing) is a better response than making plans to deal with the problems that we know will arise next week, next month and next year... because the long-range outcome is unpredictable (too complicated to bother about) and somebody will probably survive, so it'll all turn out all right ... because the horrific mistakes we made in the past made us capable of ever more destructive mistakes (success) .
All right then. LOL.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 2nd, 2019, 1:00 am 

Serpent » March 2nd, 2019, 12:16 pm wrote: trust in providence and do nothing

That's not how Homo sapiens has survived so long and successfully, is it?

And planning is not the main way, for example, stockbrokers get rich, is it?
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 2nd, 2019, 2:49 am 

Mossling » March 2nd, 2019, 12:00 am wrote:
Serpent » March 2nd, 2019, 12:16 pm wrote: trust in providence and do nothing

That's not how Homo sapiens has survived so long and successfully, is it?

Yes, it is.
By long, you mean a couple of hundred thousand years, which is hardly any time at all in evolutionary terms.
https://www.universetoday.com/38125/how-long-have-humans-been-on-earth/
By successful do you mean what pathogenic bacteria celebrate the night before their host dies?

And planning is not the main way, for example, stockbrokers get rich, is it?

Bingo! One more, even greater depression coming up!

Do you really have no perspective at all?
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 3rd, 2019, 4:10 am 

Lol, well, enjoy your pessimism. My glass is half full :)
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 3rd, 2019, 9:03 am 

It's not a question of pessimism or optimism.
Trust in God (if you must) but keep your powder dry.
One can be optimistic and still take some precautions against foreseeable calamity, instead of rushing headlong into it... because I haven't died yet, which proves I'm immortal.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 3rd, 2019, 9:22 am 

Serpent » March 3rd, 2019, 10:03 pm wrote: take some precautions against foreseeable calamity

Yes, optimism is a good precaution I think.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 3rd, 2019, 2:27 pm 

Mossling » March 3rd, 2019, 8:22 am wrote:Yes, optimism is a good precaution I think.

As a smile makes an effective umbrella.
Good luck.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 4th, 2019, 12:43 am 

Serpent » March 4th, 2019, 3:27 am wrote:
Mossling » March 3rd, 2019, 8:22 am wrote:Yes, optimism is a good precaution I think.

As a smile makes an effective umbrella.
Good luck.

optimism increases confidence, and increased confidence leads to more successes. Just as any pick-up artist ;P haha, but it does have logic behind it.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 4th, 2019, 1:04 am 

However you colour it, illusion is no substitute for information; faith is no substitute for rational thought; luck is no substitute for foresight; confidence is no substitute for competence.
But they're sure easier!
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 4th, 2019, 4:13 am 

Serpent » March 4th, 2019, 2:04 pm wrote:However you colour it, illusion is no substitute for information; faith is no substitute for rational thought; luck is no substitute for foresight;

From where I'm standing, pessimism is a perspective based on illusion, whilst my optimism seems rational.

Serpent » March 4th, 2019, 2:04 pm wrote:confidence is no substitute for competence.

No one has asserted that, but confidence resulting from optimism can certainly increase one's competence! There are numerous studies to prove that. 'Lion whisperers' even make it the cornerstone of their success. A pessimistic attitude is the difference between an alive person and a dead person when facing a large cat because they can smell your fear.

Now translate that to your broader social situation - where there are cheaters, bullies, and psychopaths, and realize why optimism is a healthy attitude to cultivate.

Anyway, we're veering off topic. The point I wanted to make is that you have the power to cultivate outcomes, and by fearing intelligent technology you cause it to affect you negatively, because fear causes anxiety and at a certain point anxiety triggers the stress response, which injects cortisol into one's blood stream, which if continues to be present for long stretches is highly toxic and causes a broad range of health issues.

Don't let the tech 'terminate' you before it has even appeared ;P

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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 4th, 2019, 11:56 am 

Mossling » March 4th, 2019, 3:13 am wrote:Anyway, we're veering off topic. The point I wanted to make is that you have the power to cultivate outcomes, and by fearing intelligent technology you cause it to affect you negatively, because fear causes anxiety and at a certain point anxiety triggers the stress response, which injects cortisol into one's blood stream, which if continues to be present for long stretches is highly toxic and causes a broad range of health issues.


It's got to be some sophisticated, specialized robot that can analyze the chemical content of evaporating sweat and then correlate the result with human emotional states. Most of them can't, and in any case, would not be attracted or repelled or in any way influenced by that analysis. Nor does the anxiety or confidence of any one person - other than perhaps a CEO or major investor - toward industry affect - cultivate? - the outcome of production and distribution. So what's the relevance?
Why are you talking about pessimism and fear, optimism and cats and all this mumbo, when the topic is automation?

Relevant questions:
What are the economic factors that will affect the course of industrial automation?
What is the foreseeable, measurable, statistically predictable timeline?
What will be effects on employment over 10 years, 20 years and 30 years?
What will be the social consequences of the change in employment?
What will be the economic consequences?
How will industry change? How will governance change? How will demographics change?
All of these factors can be assessed and plotted in several ways, taking into account the major variables of which we already know - like population increase and displacements, climate change, resource depletion and environmental degradation.

Next, we ask:
Can we mitigate the most severe predictable disruptions?
Which is the most desirable of the possible scenarios in our calculation?
Can we plot a course from where we are to the most desirable of those predicted outcomes?
What steps must we take now, in five years, in ten years, in twenty years to stay on that course?
What regulations, funds and taxes should governments enact?
What adjustments and long-term procedures can industry put in place?
How can educational institutions prepare a population of the future?
How should communication media prepare a population for the future?
A great many sensible and executable measures might be proposed, might be discussed, might be initiated.

Or, you can just say:
Cheer up; smell good for the lions and in a thousand years it won't matter anyway.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 8th, 2019, 6:49 pm 

Restaurants are now employing robots – should chefs be worried?
The Guardian, Thu 7 Mar 2019
In an industry keen to slash labour costs and increase profits, further automation seems inevitable. After an eight-month test at Kang Nam Tofu House in California, Bear Robotics credited Penny with driving a 28% increase in sales. Meanwhile, in US trials, the self-ordering screens that McDonald’s is currently installing at its 1,300 UK restaurants yielded a reported 30% rise in order values.
[...]
Companies such as Domino and Just Eat have both experimented with robot and drone delivery, which is already legal in Reykjavík, Iceland. “Robot food deliveries are the future,” says Sharkey. “Small, 4mph ground-robots are safe and will work 24 hours a day.”
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby TheVat on March 28th, 2019, 11:09 am 

Skype founder studies the Singularity and how we should prepare for superintelligent computers.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ingularity
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Serpent on March 28th, 2019, 11:49 am 

Industry doesn't care. Financial speculators don't care. Stockholders don't care.
Just like the restauranteur who thinks he'll make profit by firing the chef, next door to a dry cleaner who makes more profit by firing the staff, across the the street from the supermarket that's installed automatic checkouts, a block from the factory that's already fired all the employees to make more profit...
With all those people unemployed, who do they think is going to buy their product?

None of these short-sighted people will install sophisticated safeguards that might impeded the productivity of their robots, or slow down their global transactions.
The eggheads are just being pessimistic: the banker's glass is overflowing.

(PS having six kids doesn't sound all that perspicacious... but that's just me.)
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on March 29th, 2019, 1:55 am 

Last paragraph of that article:

People get overly preoccupied with what superintelligent AI is, Tallinn said. What form will it take? Should we worry about a single AI taking over, or an army of them? “From our perspective, the important thing is what AI does,” he stressed. And that, he believes, may still be up to humans – for now.

So people can indeed program some nano-goo to hoover up carbon and reproduce itself until the whole planet is covered in the stuff - sure, just like a scientist can create a bioweapon virus that could wreak global havoc. Perhaps the divide between bioengineering and ai-driven machines is just becoming finer and finer. It doesn't seem the general threat is particularly new.

I still maintain that in the absence of an analog grasp on infinity, then AI will forever be limited in its potential, and true consciousness will always have the edge over it, no matter the computing power. But that is perhaps a topic for another thread.

Meanwhile, here's the latest FedEx 'employee' solution, which popped up before a youtube video that I watched today:



Lol, it's pretty much R2D2. But it's probably just going to be the 'brick phone' of the robot age, isn't it:

Image

With Gundam type creations roaming the streets within a few decades ;P

A South Korean robotics company just built a real Gundam
engadget.com, 12.27.16

Image

Image

Image
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby Mossling on April 9th, 2019, 12:06 am 

Google's world-first drone delivery business wins approval in Canberra
The Guardian, 9th April 2019
drone delivery of food and drinks, medication and locally-made coffee and chocolate.

That's one less lorry driver clogging up the road and one less pilot risking his life....

Ahh, good old science.
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Re: Living in a soon-to-be AI-driven Society (within 15 yrs)

Postby TheVat on April 9th, 2019, 9:42 am 

Wonder if it will scare away birds. "OMG, a giant hawk-thing descending upon us!"
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