SG1, you are digging back a ways, 2014? Yes I did think that was a ridiculously unjustified value back then, and the fact that it appears to be so much higher doesn't change that thought. There seems to be no logical reason to expect there is that/any value there, or any measurable, predictable or accessible how the value might change. It could be something as unpredictable as a group of well connected criminal at a poker game. One guy has a bad hand and says he is to cash out of bitcoin, then the instability shakes up the room and the next day the value amongst rest of is in a sharp decline. The point being, there is no one standing up to say there is value here in this bit of coin.
Yes that is the argument, there is really no value to it. But the counterargument (which I don't necessarily buy, but this is the argument) is that the dollar is just a confidence game too. It's not backed by anything and they've recently been creating lot of new dollars out of thin air. The only difference is that the government is behind the dollar. But with the amount of printing going on, confidence in the dollar may collapse before confidence in bitcoin does. That's the argument, anyway. When the dollar collapses, everyone flees to bitcoin and it goes to a $1M.
Nobody has any idea. But the massive quantitative easing the past few years not only by the US but also by the European Central Bank and by China is a genuine concern. If global confidence in paper money collapses, there will be a depression the likes of which the world's never seen. With or without bitcoin this is a genuine concern. It's the printing that's papered over the 2008 financial crisis, which never really ended and which actually guaranteed that the next crash will be a lot worse. And there will be nobody to bail us out. This is an alt-economic theory floating around that I happen to agree with.