A Prelude to War?

[Event Horizon]

The developing political situation in Syria for (probable) use of chemical weapons. President Trump said we have some smart missiles, expect them soon. Which isn't very smart.
Jordan and Russia say they will shoot them down. And attack the launch site if possible. That could be a sub.
Iran and Turkey will probably throw in their lot with Russia.
I've been covering many conflicts over many years, and this one is the most complicated by far. It's been visceral and brutal. I recall Assad dropping chlorine on Homs. He's been doing it for years.
If these missile strikes actually occur, they could be interpreted as an act of war.
Things have the potential to go worryingly bad in not much time. Are we actually ready for that?

Twitter: https://t.co/ifTJKs5mLN

[BadgerJelly]

The main contention is with the Kurds. The rest is just window dressing.

Syria may split, the future of Syria lies in the North. If Assad can negotiate with them and together create a nation base don religious tolerance that would be great. Given the history with Turkey we can expect a lot of resistance to any such thing taking place given there recent political changes.

The war has been going on for a while. I don't expect the US or Russia to have no input because they both have their own game to play.

The US should steer clear of Russia and stop annoying them.

This has little to nothing to do with human rights.

[curiosity]

This has little to nothing to do with human rights.

"That's for certain!" Its a pity the US administration don't show the same level of indignation and will actually turn a blind eye when it is the Israeli armed forces murdering Palestinian men women and children.

[toucana]

From president Trump's Twitter feed just a short while ago.

Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not at all ! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”

Trump seems to be playing bait and switch on an operatic scale. It's like his administration's much vaunted recent 'expulsion' of 60 Russian diplomats from the USA in response to Russia's use of a nerve agent poison on British soil. Except it turns out that behind the scenes when no one was looking, Trump officials quietly told the Russians they could simply replace the departing spies with another 60 new ones once the fuss had died down.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/theres-a-huge-caveat-in-the-us-expulsion-of-60-russian-diplomats-2018-3?r=US&IR=T

Right now it all looks like yet another 'smoke and mirrors' conjuring show being conducted by a master scammer and Russian sock-puppet.

[TheVat]

Assad is a fascist war criminal who first won election in 2000 by 99.7% of the vote. That percentage is pretty telling. That's not a figure you ever see in a legitimate voting process. He is friends with Hezbollah, a terrorist organization. And with Iran. He has murdered thousands of citizens who expressed any criticism of his regime. He has slaughtered and starved hundreds of thousands of civilians, using barrel bombs, chemical attacks, and conventional means. He is of the Alawite sect, an extremist Shia sect that is only 11% of Syria, and hostile to other Muslims and Christians. He is not a legitimate democratically elected leader of Syria. I am disappointed at the way Europe and the US have been shrugging their shoulders over all this and playing their little chickenshit political games. Any nation that gives Assad a pass, or support, should be condemned and sanctioned for abetting a morally bankrupt regime that is an affront to basic human rights. If we, the US, really gave a crap about human rights, we would have established a more stern "red line" over a decade ago.

[TheVat]

Syria, Russia and Iran have denied the use of chemical weapons, accusing the rebels and rescue workers of concocting the story to gain sympathy as their defeat loomed.

- New York Times, today.

This is reprehensible, that other nations are providing cover for Assad's atrocities. Many multiple eyewitness reports of chlorine gas, which has a distinctive odor, and resulting fatalities. Russian and Iran should be censured by all civilized nations for suggesting that these monstrous acts are somehow fabrications.

[Event Horizon]

I might add that the military class Chlorine a "Choking agent" much in the tradition of mustard gases. It's also heavier than air and readily pools in cellars and bunkers where families tend to hide. There is no way to use this weapon in any discriminate way, and is forbidden under the third Geneva convention if I recall.

The international chemical weapons experts have also said the Novochok was of very high purity, indicating highly capable state manufacture is all but certain.

Theresa May said we'll back the US, but the US forces are not there by permission. It's got a ways to run yet I think.

[curiosity]

What a twisted web of lies and deceit,which is floating in a cesspit of misinformation coming from all of the parties concerned. The truth will emerge eventually. Until then, let us not jump to conclusions.

[Event Horizon]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british ... ia-strike/

As predicted.

[wolfhnd]

Already signed a petition asking Trump to wait until there is proof.

[Event Horizon]

The USA, Britain and France have coordinated and executed a cruise missile attack on Syrian chemical research and production facilities.
4 British Tornado GR4 aircraft also flew sorties to deliver the "Stormshadow" cruise missiles used.
Roughly 120 Tomahawk missiles were also used, and the Russian and Syrian forces claim to have destroyed and disrupted many missiles.
I expect there will be a battle-damage assessment on the targets to assess if more strikes are needed, but judging by the following video, destruction looks complete.
There will be repercussions by Syria/Russia axis allegedly.

https://twitter.com/twitter/statuses/985072342031306752

[TheVat]

Already signed a petition asking Trump to wait until there is proof.

Do you find it interesting that, when 1400 Syrians were killed in a chemical attack in 2013, that the GOP in Congress opposed Obama when he proposed a similar response? Obama actually asked Congress for approval of the attack, showing deference to the Constitution and the people. Trump tweeted against that attack, too, in 2013. Apparently those dead children (see last night's speech) didn't bother him so much.

It's easy for Trump to shift his ideology, when he can look like a macho dude for his loyal base.

[BadgerJelly]

Another point of view from a similar situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1VNQGsiP8M

[Event Horizon]

Another point of view from a similar situation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g1VNQGsiP8M

Firstly I'd like to thank you guys for taking an interest. I do not subscribe to Eva's pro-Assad/Russia point of view, and she has made many similar statements in the past. The reality of the past 7 years war tells another story, though she has a right to be heard, and perhaps should be.

Many ceasefires for evacuation of citizens and fighters and humanitarian reasons have been attempted, they are fragile things at best and require serious discipline. They did not all hold, but significantly many have. There can be no doubt these save lives, and are not worthless as intimated.

The US/UK/French allies are satisfied with the battle-damage assessments showing that there is no need for any follow-up attacks. The political fallout is set to smolder on for some time yet I think.

[BadgerJelly]

I don't subscribe to pro-Russian point of view either. NATO exists though so we can hardly be surprised if Russians are twitchy.

[Event Horizon]

I suppose that the degree to which NATO irritates Russia is an indirect indicator that NATO is reigning in and frustrating Russia. Poland, Ukraine and the Balkan states are all targets of Russian expansionism. Without NATO I suspect some of these states might have already been lost.
75 years of relative peace in Europe can probably be attributed to the existence of NATO.
Ukraine is interesting in that if it weren't for NATO, the Russian militant insurgency may well have succeeded by now. It seems Ukraine is a NATO protectorate having asked to join NATO much to the chagrin of the Russians.
A separate thread on how insurgencies work might be worth a thread of its own.