Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 28th, 2020, 9:05 am 

My concerns are touched on a little here.

How we must respond to the coronavirus pandemic | Bill Gates

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe8fIjxicoo
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Lomax on March 28th, 2020, 8:02 pm 

Gates is too trusting of the Chinese government's data, but he's right that a quicker quarantine is a briefer one, that building immunity only in a small portion of the herd (the "key workers") is a sensible way to stagger the impact on the healthcare system while maintaining the skeleton of the economy, and that testing is crucial (the European countries which have made testing more easily available have on the whole weathered the storm better). He's also right that debt is more reversible than death - the UK's enormous bailout package is equal to the wealth we accumulate (under normal circumstances) in about six weeks.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 28th, 2020, 10:45 pm 

For comparison India has 40,000 ventilators whilst the UK has about 10,000.

Put those figure up against 1.3 billion people and 66 million people and it doesn’t take much working out to see the issue.

That’s about 1 ventilator per 32500 people in India and 1 per 6600 in UK. That’s before we take into account the huge wealth disparity within each country and the levels of poverty. Double the rate of unemployment in India too ... think about that in terms of the number of people and living conditions.

So it does seem to me that full lockdown - if done correctly - will give the developed countries the opportunity to step up and help the developing world once we’re clear of and knowledgeable about this disease.

If there is a cohesive effort on the part of the developed countries to continue the fight once it’s left our shores then great stuff! If not we deserve a second, third, forth and fifth wave until we take responsibility.

The way Bill Gates skirted around the issue in less developed countries a little made me wary. I still think we should be thinking second wave. Maybe that is his thinking? Get sorted in developed countries and then tell everyone to help the developing countries or we’ll get a second, third, fourth, ... wave.

Again, if anyone knows of people with a foot in virology AND global economics please provide a link/name.

Thanks
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Re: Down the Hatch?

Postby Faradave on March 28th, 2020, 11:55 pm 

My sister in Florida seems to be recovered from pneumonia which is to this day only presumptively covid-19 since she was never availed of a the test and is no longer interested.

The rest of my extended family is fine but there's a kink in the armor in that my wife is a nurse in a retirement village medical center. They now have five confirmed covid-19 cases among residents. One has been sent to hospital in need of ventilator. The rest quarantine in place. Trouble is the same as everywhere, not enough masks of the proper type. Also as soon as the word got out there was a predictable increase in staff call outs. That means more demand/pleading for part timers to fill in. And yet they are given only one "disposable" mask per shift, and not the good kind (that filter virus). My wife has always been fastidious about germ precautions, a great quality in a nurse, but with those masks, we expect it is only a matter of time.

Instead of waiting in suspense, we often think it would be better to have had it before and been over it by now. Of course, things can go badly. We've read of cases of young, healthy people dying of the infection. We're 60 & 64. That brings me to a hunch that I might need to try out.

Since we live under the same roof, if my wife gets covid-19, in all likelihood so will I. The question is how. My impression so far is that inhaling is worst. Then it sets up in your lungs first, where the inflammation leads to fluid build up and fibrin deposition leading to need for a ventilator support until the immune system catches up with defending antibodies.

Our new policy, everyday I'm giving the wife a big sloppy kiss, then swallow hard. I think our bodies prefer that we get this through the GI tract. That's what tonsils are for, along with inumerable other immune sentries throughout. You still get sick but its fever and diarrhea first, then respiratory involvement. By the time it gets to the lungs, the immune response is already well under way.

I continue to be a proponent of antimalarials for treatment (and even prevention in first line health care providers) but I'll delay trying to get some till I'm sure of the need.

Bottom line: If covid-19 wants my lungs, it's going to have to wade through shit to get them.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on March 29th, 2020, 10:39 am 

That is just nutty, Dave. Kisses don't guarantee the virus will go first to your gut. Chloroquine has side effects including cardio ones that mean randomized clinical trials are vital to assess any therapeutic value and weigh that against SE risks. And finally, if your wife works in a nursing home, you should segregate from her, if only to avoid the possibility of transmission the other direction, i. e. her going to work asymptomatic but infectious in a nursing environment that already has vectors going. Jesus, what if you slipped up at the grocery store and brought CV home? Maybe some dufus had sneezed on the canned beans you purchased and you forgot to clean all the cans surfaces. Some strains of the current CV live quite a while on hard surfaces.
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Re: One man's poison is another man's meat

Postby Faradave on March 29th, 2020, 12:05 pm 

TheVat wrote:That is just nutty, Dave.

I'm not recommending this for everyone, just giving a personal strategy.

TheVat wrote:Kisses don't guarantee the virus will go first to your gut.

I hold my breath. It's the best guarantee available. An alternative would be to use saliva and a needle to excoriate through the dead layers of skin to have an intradermal or subcutaneous inoculation(i.e. live vaccination). On a daily basis, I much prefer kissing.

It would be interesting to know how people who survived the similar SARS infection (or had the vaccine) are doing against covid-19. Milder live cowpox inoculation was used by Jenner to protect against smallpox. Before that it was live smallpox inoculation. This provided some control of the infectious dose and more importantly the route.

TheVat wrote:you should segregate from her, if only to avoid the possibility of transmission the other direction

Inventing automatically keeps me self quarantined. I go food shopping every two weeks, short visits followed by hand washing along with the produce. The dojang where I train suspended classes two weeks ago, until further notice and the trail where I jog is never crowded (even so, I hold my breath while passing).

By contrast, the precautions taken at the nursing home don't seem adequate.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 30th, 2020, 12:29 am 

Brief report about how the southern hemisphere is trying to prepare.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ru8qsQ9wQs
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on March 30th, 2020, 10:12 am 

This underscores how contagious CV can be....

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... r-outbreak
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 31st, 2020, 5:20 am 

Brief report about Brasil : https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c8r3rleay2E
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on March 31st, 2020, 12:12 pm 

The British government has announced plans to release a contact tracking smartphone app that can be used to trace and alert anyone who might have been in close proximity to someone who subsequently tests positive for COVID-19 virus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-govt-set-to-release-contact-tracking-app-which-detects-nearby-virus-carriers-11966243

The app which has been awaiting approval by NHSX, the technological innovation arm of the NHS, would be deployed on an opt-in basis after the current lock-down rules are lifted.

The app will detect other phones in close vicinity using short-range Bluetooth signals, then store a record of those contacts on the device, the sources say.

If someone tests positive for COVID-19, they will be able to upload those contacts, who can then be alerted - after a suitable delay, to avoid accidentally identifying an individual - via the app.

NHSX plans to appoint an Ethics Board to oversee the project, with board members to be identified over the coming weeks.

The proposals have already ignited a brisk debate among privacy campaigners and data protection advocates who questioned whether any board of this kind would be independent, and raised concerns about the app's safeguards.

Last week, a group of "responsible technologists" published an open letter to the CEO of NHSX and the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care warning that "location and contact tracking technology could be used as a means of social control".
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 31st, 2020, 12:37 pm 

Terrible idea. Next thing you know it’ll be mandatory. What practical purpose would this solve other than help instill fear/paranoia?

Imagine you get a message like this in 3 months once everyone is still in lockdown ... ‘Two days ago you were near someone who is now sick. Isolate yourself for 2 weeks or face fine.’

It serves no practical purpose.

Remember Orwell! “FREEDOM IS SLAVERY” - I hope people stop and think.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on March 31st, 2020, 2:42 pm 

The practical purpose is to do what countries like Taiwan, Singapore and South Korea have already done very successfully; and what the governments of UK, the USA and most of western Europe *should* have been doing weeks ago, had they not all been collectively asleep at the wheel.

And that is to initiate a comprehensive program of aggressive contact tracing, testing, and medical isolation of people infected with COVID-19 virus. It’s the only thing that is likely to bring this pandemic under control in the forseeable future, and it will be even more important to maintain this type of program once the nationwide lockdown and social distancing instructions are eased back in a few weeks time. Because if we don’t maintain this type of scrutiny, then the possibility of a severe secondary wave of infections will be very high.

Anyone following the BBC news will have seen this video which detailed the construction in just ten days of brand a new 4000 bed emergency ‘Nightingale’ hospital at the Excel Centre in London's Canary Wharf district.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsdYGWQCfhs

Other similar Nightingale hospitals are being constructed right now at Birmingingam NEC, the Central Convention centre in Manchester, the SEC in Glasgow, and the Principality Stadium in Cardiff .

None of this is a drill. None of this being done to “instill fear/paranoia”. It really is time to leave sophomoric libertarian cant about “Say No To House Arrest” to imbeciles like Nigel Farage.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on March 31st, 2020, 4:00 pm 

The reason for success is due to plenty of practice. No deaths here and no one is being tracked.

If SARS, Swine flu and MERS had effected the west in anything like the degree they have elsewhere they’d have been ready. Now the west knows how to respond and tracking people’s movements is not necessary, and frankly so open to misuse that it’s not practical for anyone longterm.

Hungary has enough fear and paranoia to effectively do away with democracy over night. Imprisoning people for walking outside and dishing out fines is pretty extreme stuff. I don’t see any good in implementing tracking devices.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on March 31st, 2020, 6:15 pm 

Mixed feelings here. I own a flip phone, with no GPS circuitry, and have been pretty happy not carrying a trackable device. (doubly untrackable, because I often just leave it at home, or in the car) While not really libertarian, it's clear I have warm feelings for being free and untraceable, often spending cash (rectangles of paper with pictures of monarchs or former holders of high office, for those who may have forgotten...), driving an older car with no web connection, and generally not leaving data spoor. The opening rant by Mr McGoohan in The Prisoner is perhaps relevant. That said, if something sufficiently lethal were circulating, I might reconsider any device which could help. It would depend, of course, on what state the government was in and what sort of ethos was behind those in charge. IOW, relative risk assessment is always called for.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on April 1st, 2020, 5:26 am 

On my discharge day, before going anywhere I had to go to my apartment leasing office, where I showed the committee a chart of my daily temperature readings and a medical professional checked my temperature so I could get a certificate saying I was "free and clear" from Covid-19. This qualified me for a "green" scan phone code that I had to show before entering any grocery store or taking public transportation. That code would have turned red if I'd gone out of town or turned off my GPS.

This is part of an account written by Devika Koppikar, an American teacher and civil rights activist living in the city of Wuxi in China (about 500 miles east of Wuhan). She describes her experience of spending 14 days in complete quarantine within the sealed doors of her own apartment, before returning to her work, and a life in China just emerging from lockdown.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/opinions/china-coronavirus-end-quarantine-devika-koppikar-opinion/index.html

A CNN video segment by David Culver filmed in Shanghai attached to her story shows how the the Chinese phone scan system works. Each person is assigned a QR code on their smart phone which links to a central contact tracing database. Your phone scan code remains green if you are not listed as having been in contact with a carrier. The scan code turns yellow indicating advisory self-isolation if you might have been within a certain distance of a possible carrier, and turns red indicating a need for an immediate full quarantine and medical screening if your contact list indicates either high risk, or a data search failure. (ChinaFile - “Potential coronavirus second wave has China on high alert” - David Culver).
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on April 1st, 2020, 10:45 am 

Toucana, if my country were not currently governed by a far-right cabal with dictatorial aspirations, I might be more sanguine about tracking phones. Unfortunately, many totalitarian governments have risen which implemented brutal levels of control by citing public safety as the basis for each step in the process.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on April 1st, 2020, 11:13 am 

Flash piece of news about situation in India (just 1.5 mins long)

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fgYxy3Py6V0
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on April 1st, 2020, 6:54 pm 

Doogles, I removed both our posts. Thanks for your integrity - and I encourage you to post anything you glean on followup studies as they are released. Since we are still 18 months from a vaccine (novel viruses, as you know, take longer to get there), any compound that can be therapeutic (or even prophylactic) will make a difference potentially to millions.
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Re: Golden Opportunity

Postby Faradave on April 1st, 2020, 9:06 pm 

12- 18 months to vaccine seems to late, as it often is for flu considering the number sick right now and possibility of future virus mutation.

There is increasing talk of convalescent plasma (from those who have recovered from covid-19) by transferring the antibodies responsible for the recovery. These are to the virus what a mussel is to a dog and will work right now! It's an example of a "case study" (just one person) being self evidently conclusive. The patient got better because the antibodies worked. Those who have recovered should be asked to volunteer plasma, perhaps as a special task force of the Red Cross collections.

The trouble is that people on ventilators are, at that point, fighting their own inflammatory response more than the virus itself. This is worsened if their cardiovascular and/or renal systems aren't up to getting rid of all that fluid.

Convalescent plasma is best administered to deteriorating patients prior to needing a ventilator. By November, cultured antibodies of the same sort will be in mass production.

Regarding hydrochloriquine and other experimental regimens. Double-blind, randomized, placebo controlled clinical trials are certainly the "gold standard". As is often the case however, most people can't afford gold. And I've done enough of these studies to tell you, they are often far from perfect anyway. (That's why FDA requires at least two such trials for approval under ordinary circumstances).

There are a variety of other kinds of study which serve medicine in the meantime. We keep hearing that the data on hydroxychloroquine is "anecdotal" but I disagree. It would be better to term reports of more than 10 patients as "case series" and in larger numbers, "case-control studies" and "open-label trials". These are often the justification for later double-blind studies but can be used as a basis for treatment in the meantime. This is particularly true if there is a pharmacological rationale for efficacy, if there is supporting preclinical (i.e. test tube or animal data), and of growing importance a distinct paucity of conflicting data. Any doc with a case series showing a majority of failures to improve on the regimen would be on a fast track to notoriety. In the latter case, it's their silence which is golden.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on April 2nd, 2020, 12:29 am 

12- 18 months to vaccine seems to late, as it often is for flu considering the number sick right now and possibility of future virus mutation.


Really? I thought it was extremely optimistic. Vaccines usually take years to produce for new diseases don’t they? I guess given the circumstances more resources will be allocated in to this to move it along more quickly, but 12-18 months is VERY quick considering.

Even if they make one that soon there is the problem of rolling it out across the world - best case it could be something like two years before it’s readily available everywhere.

I think we could see 80% infected in the developing world because people just can’t afford to stop working. Without help from the developed world we’ll see multiple waves of this I reckon - unless the movement of people from places like Mexico, Brazil, Columbia, Nigeria, South Africa, Indonesia, Philippines, and Pakistan effectively have there borders closed down.

Latest (on the global scale) I heard is 20-50% infected and 1-3% mortality rate. The vaccine will help us in future strains of this kind of virus and hopefully help the tail end of victims.

I’m just hoping the world will step up and once the developed countries are pretty much free of this they’ll beginning shipping ventilators and supplies to the countries in a hellish situation along with medical staff and volunteers.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Forest_Dump on April 2nd, 2020, 8:35 am 

I have to admit that I haven't been able to keep up with all the talk (too busy with other things believe it or not) but I am curious about how they are calculating and reporting rates of infection (e.g. "20%" above) particularly with the low rate of testing and that being very selective (i.e., biased in so many ways). I have been looking at the total numbers reported and adjusting loosely for total population. So now, my guess is about 1:10,000 with the dread being we will hit as high as 1:1,000, swamping the hospitals with the (small) percentage who become seriously ill. Personally, I figure it is inevitable I will be exposed and possible I will be noticeably ill and might even need medical treatment (my age and a couple of complicating factors) so I am doing what I can to delay that until the medical system can recover from the initial waves and maybe the virus will even weaken. But bottom line, I expect sooner or later I will be exposed. I may get it and not even notice that. And there is a strong probability that even if I get very sick (so that I am bed-ridden for a few days), I won't need hospitalization.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Serpent on April 2nd, 2020, 8:46 am 

12-18 months is a reasonable estimate for a vaccine, given that highly qualified people in excellent facilities in several countries are working flat-out, with all the support they need.
This is not a brand new virus, but a novel variant of MERS and SARS, with a DNA overlap of 80% or more. So the research is not starting from scratch; it just has to resume and accelerate.
It's not as if world leaders hadn't been warned, over and over, for the last quarter century, about the imminence (inevitability?) of a global pandemic; the need to stockpile emergency supplies and keep medical research well funded. They just did what they do about all warnings : put it on the back burner while they concentrated on the important stuff: their poll numbers.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby BadgerJelly on April 2nd, 2020, 9:01 am 

I think the bottom line remains ... it’s going to be tough for 1-2 yrs globally - much more so in developing countries.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on April 2nd, 2020, 9:25 am 

One problem with creating a new vaccine for COVID-19 is that novel Corona viruses apparently can’t be cultured in eggs in the way that seasonal influenza viruses can.

The USA alone normally uses around 140 million eggs each year to create flu vaccines at a rate of one shot per egg. The chicken farms that generate these eggs are part of a strategic national reserve whose location is kept top secret. CNN Technology published an article about this the other day.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/27/health/chicken-egg-flu-vaccine-intl-hnk-scli/index.html

The problem is that novel Corona type viruses have different chemical receptors and simply won’t replicate inside eggs in the same way. So researchers are exploring other ways of culturing the COVID-19 virus and extracting usable antigens. Another recent CNN article explains how one biotech company is using tobacco plants instead.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/01/business/coronavirus-vaccine-british-american-tobacco/index.html

The company called Kentucky BioProcessing is actually a subsidiary of British American Tobacco (BTAFF), and they are just one of at least 20 different research teams working on a possible vaccine

In order to produce the potential vaccine, Kentucky BioProcessing cloned a portion of the novel coronavirus' genetic sequence and injected that into the tobacco plants, which developed a potential antigen that is now being tested on rodents.

According to the World Health Organization, plant-derived vaccines can be produced cheaply in very high amounts and are less likely than traditionally developed vaccines to contain contaminants that are harmful.

Kentucky BioProcessing was involved in the production of ZMapp in 2014, a treatment that was tested with some success on Ebola patients in the United States before it was abandoned in favor of more effective alternatives.
Last edited by toucana on April 2nd, 2020, 10:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on April 2nd, 2020, 10:22 am 

According to the World Health Organization, plant-derived vaccines can be produced cheaply in very high amounts and are less likely than traditionally developed vaccines to contain contaminants that are harmful.


Also good news for vegans, PETA folk, who might have reservations about getting a vaccination derived from animal confinement.
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Re: Place your bets

Postby Faradave on April 2nd, 2020, 11:27 am 

This is a reference to the manufactured antiserum which provides passive but very potent immunity within 20 min. of administration (the time it takes to absorb an intramuscular injection), clearing the virus from the patient Now expected to be widely available by Sept. 2020. It is to me, the best hope of preventing covid-19 infection in health professionals (& other high exposure) and to prevent deteriorating patients from becoming severe. In the long run, lasting herd immunity from mild & subclinical infections (and eventually a vaccine) will prevail.
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Re: Place your bets

Postby Serpent on April 2nd, 2020, 11:39 am 

Faradave » April 2nd, 2020, 10:27 am wrote: In the long run, lasting herd immunity from mild & subclinical infections (and eventually a vaccine) will prevail.

Against this variant, yes. Not the next one. Thing about viruses: they mutate a lot faster than we can. OTH, so do bacteria, and they are sometimes our best friends.
Scientists can make predictions with only very limited precision; the longer the time-projection, the more variables will intrude.
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Re: Variation of a (mostly mild) theme

Postby Faradave on April 2nd, 2020, 12:04 pm 

Serpent wrote:Against this variant, yes. Not the next one.

Agreed, but let's recall that covid-19 is itself such a variant. Corona viruses (the ones with little bumps forming a "corona" about their sphere shell) have been around as a source of the common cold for a long, long time. I don't think we should expect severe forms in the future any more frequently than in the past (e.g. SARS).
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on April 2nd, 2020, 12:35 pm 

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... avirus-us/


Am wondering if this nation could mobilize at the level it did during WW2. Idle high school kids in good health could be recruited to rescue crops from rotting in the field, if our government is unable to get its act together and get those Latinx workers permitted. Of course that sentence sort of answers itself - if we cannot get vital consulate functions up and running, what hope would there be mobilizing American citizens to be field labor? What level of food deprivation would motivate us? Wonder if all the xenophobes who voted, at both state and federal level, for brutal immigration policies, are going to realize that empty bins at the supermarket may be the eventual result of their choices?
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Re: Variation of a (mostly mild) theme

Postby Serpent on April 2nd, 2020, 12:40 pm 

Faradave » April 2nd, 2020, 11:04 am wrote:Agreed, but let's recall that covid-19 is itself such a variant. Corona viruses (the ones with little bumps forming a "corona" about their sphere shell) have been around as a source of the common cold for a long, long time.

Yes, I mentioned that above, in connection to vaccine research.
I don't think we should expect severe forms in the future any more frequently than in the past (e.g. SARS).

Note how each iteration is more stealthy, swift and deadly than the previous one.
I think we really should expect increasing severity of outbreaks --
unless this pandemic is the changer of how we conduct ourselves.
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