Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on April 26th, 2020, 10:13 am 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... e-who-says

As of Friday, the WHO said, "No study has evaluated whether the presence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 confers immunity to subsequent infection by this virus in humans."

What's more, data reported from the world's early COVID-19 hot spots, such as South Korea and China, have shown that a growing number of recovered patients appear to have suffered a relapse of the disease.

By mid-April, Korean health authorities said that just over 2% of the country's recovered patients were in isolation again after testing positive a second time. And in Wuhan, China, data from several quarantine facilities in the city, which house patients for observation after their discharge from hospitals, show that about 5% to 10% of patients pronounced "recovered" have tested positive again.

It remains unclear why this is occurring — whether it is a sign of a second infection, a reactivation of the remaining virus in the body or the result of an inaccurate antibody test.


I hope it's a test problem. If secondary infection after recovery is going to render the virus transmissible again, then we are in for a long bumpy ride.
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Re: Sweet Memories

Postby Faradave on April 26th, 2020, 11:38 am 

The human immune system has a memory which improves with repetition.

I'm currently between two vaccinations advised to protect (though not perfectly) from shingles. That's a type of recurrence of herpes infection that people can get if they had chicken pox (typically in childhood). I should have some immunity from the original chicken pox but nature lets that wane if I don't have frequent re-exposure. The current vaccine is a booster, given such re-exposure but it works best when given twice, a few months apart.

Similarly, in clean, civilized society, most people need tetanus boosters every 10 years. By contrast hard-working farmers are probably constantly re-exposed but daily cuts and scrapes.

Covid immunity is still being learned. That said it's difficult to explain anyone's recovery without some degree of immunity. Some antibodies are more protective than others. What you want is an antibody that binds to a critical site on the virus (needed to enter host cells). That muzzles covid. But their can be antibodies to other non-critical proteins on covid. Those simply indicate exposure (typically sub-clinical as by a scratch), not necessarily immunity. A good test looks for critical immunizing antibodies.

I think you're right to question the antibody testing. There have been quality control issues with early tests and that may have given us wrong data about who is/isn't immune.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on April 28th, 2020, 1:28 pm 

https://slate.com/technology/2020/04/coronavirus-smoking-nicotine.html


On April 3, scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an analysis of more than 7,000 COVID-19 cases in the United States, of which strikingly few consisted of smokers. Current smokers comprised only 1.3 percent of the cases and former smokers another 2.3 percent; by comparison, smokers make up about 14 percent of the general American population and about 8 percent of the population over 65.

A more detailed multivariate analysis of more than 4,000 cases in New York, published as a pre-print by researchers at New York University on April 11, yielded similarly unexpected results: “Surprisingly, though some have speculated that high rates of smoking in China explained some of the morbidity in those patients, we did not find smoking status to be associated with hospitalization or critical illness.”

A third study from a hospital in Paris found that current smokers were underrepresented in symptomatic and hospitalized cases. A fourth study from northern France, published as a pre-print on Thursday, also found smokers to be significantly less likely to test positive for infection. The authors note in the discussion section of the paper that the “protection associated with smoking in our study was very substantial (75% decrease in risk of infection), and deserves full attention.”…

Other researchers have cautioned that samples may be skewed by underreporting, and attempting to control for multiple variables is difficult; contradictory data could appear at any time. It’s also unclear by what mechanism smoking would reduce risk. Speculation has focused on interactions between nicotine and the ACE2 receptor, where the virus enters the body’s cells, but no one knows for sure what that implies for the progression of COVID-19 or modulation of the body’s immune response.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Serpent on April 29th, 2020, 11:03 am 

Just start handing out cigarettes to old people. Oh, all tight, nicotine patches. Has Trump heard yet?

Verryyy in-te-rest-tink!
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
https://www.cdc.gov/statesystem/cigaretteuseadult.html
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 1st, 2020, 7:10 am 



A video report by Stuart Ramsay of Sky News from Sao Paolo in Brazil shows workers in full Hazmat suits with mechanical excavators frantically digging 13,000 new graves in a local cemetery to cope with a surge of recent deaths caused by COVID-19 infections. The burials take place at the rate of one every five minutes.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-president-jair-bolsonaro-dismissive-as-overwhelmed-brazilians-dig-mass-graves-11981428

The pictures filmed by cameraman Eduardo Duwe at the Vila Formosa cemetery, the largest in Latin America, are simply staggering. From the air, the enormity of this digging operation is astonishing. Grave after grave stretches as far as the eye can see.

This is a public cemetery, mainly used by the poorest families. In Sao Paulo, the poorest areas are being hit the worst.

Brazil’s Health Secretary Wanderson de Oliveira resigned on Wednesday following differences with the far-right President Jair Bolsonaro over the handling of the coronavirus pandemic in their country.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/04/brazil-health-secretary-resigns-coronavirus-pandemic-200415153501070.html

President Bolsonaro has consistently downplayed the gravity of the disease, describing it as a “mild flu”, whilst touting unproven drugs, and attacking local governors over lockdown orders.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 1st, 2020, 7:16 am 

According to the graphs attached below, it seems that a city packed with a population all under 60 years old, and awash with covid-19 would only suffer maximum 2% fatality rate, whilst if it was awash with SARS, it would suffer a minimum fatality rate of 30% of population.

Nations are currently taking SARS-like measures, however, because of the apparently much higher contagiousness, and thus 'spreadability' of covid-19, in order to prevent hospital facilities from becoming overwhelmed. However, once the virus has swept through, do you think it will be just 'accepted' as a particularly 'virulent' strain of influenza, and be bracketed in with a new conception of seasonal flu?

Because the risk to age groups that covid-19 presents seems a lot more flu-like than SARS-like.

Don't get me wrong here, though - a quarter of over 70s dying from covid-19 IS much worse than the much lower fraction of that age group for influenza, but we're looking at a third the level of SARS fatality for that age range with regards to covid-19... I suppose this is the difficult decision governments around the world must make... Is this more like a SARS thing than an influenza thing, and what will be the longterm stance here as regards any future outbreaks, which are highly likely it seems?

Interestingly, however, the influenza fatality rates are apparently calculated based on ASSUMED UNDETECTED CASES present throughout the population, whilst the covid-19 is calculated based on KNOWN cases. Since covid-19 has been predicted to be at least 10 times more present in society than detected, in fact its fatality rates start to drop down to the level of regular influenza... So what is really going on with regards to the 'scientific judgements' being made by world leaders when imposing lockdowns and so on?....
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 1st, 2020, 8:29 am 

The COVID-19 dashboard on the Axios website currently shows

Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 3,271,961 — Total deaths: 233,704 — Total recoveries — 1,022,331

U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 1,070,032 — Total deaths: 63,019 — Total recoveries — 153,947 — Total tested: 6,231,182

https://www.axios.com

In the case of USA the overall death rate figure across all ages is 5.8%, and the global figure is 7.14%. The US total of 63,019 deaths in the last eight weeks alone represents more extra deaths than took place during the 19 years of the entire Vietnam war.

If you wish to argue that COVID-19 infections are being under-reported, then you must also accept that COVID-19 deaths are also being dramatically under-reported as well. One flagrant cause of under-reporting arises from a failure in both USA and UK to include the very large number of deaths occuring in nursing homes and care facilities for the elderly in the mortality figures. There is a fuss going on about this right now here in UK because care home deaths were not being included in the official COVID-19 death figures until a couple of days ago.

COVID-19 is *not* simply another form of seasonal influenza, and it is profoundly misguided to suggest that it is. The pathogenicity of this virus is quite different, and so are the ACE chemical receptor mechanisms by which it attacks human body cells. One tell-tale clue can be found in the fact that COVID-19 virus can’t be cultivated inside hen eggs, whereas the influenza viruses can (I posted about this earlier in the thread).

It is far too early to be making simplistic and dismissive assumptions about the likely future impact of this virus, and it is also unhelpful to be querying the scientific judgements behind the current lockdowns, when all the available evidence appears to confirm the validity of the predictive mathematical SIR models which in UK at least appear to show that the R0 factor is now on a downward track - (and just in time to prevent a calamitous collapse of our National Health Service care facilities).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52493500

This has only happened because of our lockdown since 20 March. Quite what might have happened if we hadn’t shut down doesn’t really bear thinking about - although you could read my previous post about Sao Paolo in Brazil for some indications.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 1st, 2020, 11:40 am 

Yes, I was reading an article a whole back on how death certificates are filled out in the USA, and the medical examiner was describing how a push to brevity and speed will result in the COD often listing one comorbidity, such as a heart condition, and not a virus that may have precipitated a cascade of organ failures. Sometimes, pneumonia is given as the COD, without reference to virus and secondary infections. Can't find article atm but I think one phrase was that death certificates involved "more art than science."
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 1st, 2020, 10:54 pm 

toucana » May 1st, 2020, 9:29 pm wrote:The COVID-19 dashboard on the Axios website currently shows

Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 3,271,961 — Total deaths: 233,704 — Total recoveries — 1,022,331

U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 a.m. ET: 1,070,032 — Total deaths: 63,019 — Total recoveries — 153,947 — Total tested: 6,231,182

https://www.axios.com

In the case of USA the overall death rate figure across all ages is 5.8%, and the global figure is 7.14%. The US total of 63,019 deaths in the last eight weeks alone represents more extra deaths than took place during the 19 years of the entire Vietnam war.

Yes, covid-19 is highly contagious, isn't it - it is assumed that many asymptomatic carriers brought the virus into care homes.

If you wish to argue that COVID-19 infections are being under-reported, then you must also accept that COVID-19 deaths are also being dramatically under-reported as well.

I don't wish to argue that. The Santa Clara covid-19 antibody study does, and as far as I am aware their theory hasn't been debunked? Yes, deaths also most likely under-reported. Are there any studies suggesting possible ranges yet?

COVID-19 is *not* simply another form of seasonal influenza, and it is profoundly misguided to suggest that it is.

I asked a question; I didn't make a suggestion. I also said the behaviour of the covid-19 virus, in terms of age group deaths and potential undetected cases,seems more flu-like than SARS-like.

It is far too early to be making simplistic and dismissive assumptions about the likely future impact of this virus, and it is also unhelpful to be querying the scientific judgements behind the current lockdowns, when all the available evidence appears to confirm the validity of the predictive mathematical SIR models which in UK at least appear to show that the R0 factor is now on a downward track - (and just in time to prevent a calamitous collapse of our National Health Service care facilities).

Are you more qualified to say how the future scenario can be predicted than Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medical research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences? Because he has already said, apparently: “This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,”


...because of our lockdown since 20 March. Quite what might have happened if we hadn’t shut down doesn’t really bear thinking about - although you could read my previous post about Sao Paolo in Brazil for some indications.

Yes, as I said; SARS-like lockdown measures in order to prevent hospital facilities from becoming overwhelmed.

However: "so-called asymptomatic carriers makes it hard to fully contain transmission as they can spread the virus undetected, a group of Chinese viral and medical researchers told reporters in Beijing at a briefing Monday."
https://time.com/5828325/coronavirus-co ... -carriers/

So my point was not that a coronavirus, like covid-19 or SARS is the same actual virus as an influenza virus; seasonal flu or pandemic flu (like H1N1).

Rather, since the potential age group fatality rates of both seasonal influenza and covid-19 coronavirus could be so similar, perhaps they'll be considered in practical terms; predicted seasonally; endemic; cyclically, and thus 'accepted' as flu-type viruses, even though they are not, in the current scientific classificatory sense.

Yes; fatality counts are high ~ deaths are continuing to occur. It seems covid-19 can push into enclaves deeper than seasonal flu can.

John Hopkins website:
"Deaths

COVID-19: Approximately 233,704 deaths reported worldwide; 63,019 deaths in the U.S., as of May 1, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year."
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/ ... vs-the-flu
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 2nd, 2020, 12:14 am 

Addendum:

"Coronavirus. These tend to do their dirty work in the winter and early spring. The coronavirus is the cause of about 20% of colds. There are more than 30 kinds, but only three or four affect people."
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/cold ... old_causes
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 2nd, 2020, 5:53 am 

Image

Very much on this point is an article by Gavin Lee from the BBC this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52491210

Belgium currently has the highest number of COVID-19 related deaths reported in relation to the size of the population of the country. The US is currently seventh in that table, a fact that President Donald Trump has been quick to seize on, and use as political ammunition to deflect criticism over his administration’s handling of the pandemic.
Belgium has a population of 11.5 million. That means 66 people in every 100,000 have died from Covid-19. In the US, with a population of around 330 million, it's 19 in every 100,000, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

But those figures are "faulty comparisons" that have been "abused", argues Prof Steven Van Gucht, a Belgian virologist and government spokesman.

"That's the difference between public health science and political motivation," he explains. "That's purely inspired by showing how good you are doing, and it's wrong. We are actually reporting in a more correct way."

So what is the problem. What is different about this reporting ?
Belgian officials say they are counting in a way that no other country in the world is currently doing: counting deaths in hospitals and care homes, but including deaths in care homes that are suspected, not confirmed, as Covid-19 cases.

According to Belgium's latest official figures, out of 7,703 deaths, 53% have been in care homes.

Some 16% of deaths in care homes were tested positive for coronavirus. The rest are suspected.
That means more than 3,500 deaths have been counted as caused by Covid-19, but not confirmed.

"It's based on the assessment of the medical doctor, usually taking into account whether the coronavirus is present in the same care home," says Prof Van Gucht.

"For example: if you have one or two confirmed cases, then the week after you have 10 deaths in the same home based on similar symptoms."

Prime Minister Sophie Wilmès recently suggested Belgium may be over-reporting the actual number of cases.

However, Prof Van Gucht says the real number of deaths may still be higher than they are reporting, as he believes they may still be missing a few cases.

Another factor is that many more people here put loved ones in care homes than elsewhere in Europe.

Only the Netherlands and Luxembourg have a higher rate of care home occupancy, relative to their populations.

In the USA in particular, the absence of any widespread system of testing for COVID-19 means that scientists have almost no idea what the real incidence of COVID-19 infections currently is, and their reporting of per capita mortalities is also being massaged downwards for political reasons. Basically they are flying blind and allowing a political agenda to ‘Trump’ the scientific one.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 2nd, 2020, 12:20 pm 

Mossling wrote
Are you more qualified to say how the future scenario can be predicted than Jin Qi, director of the Institute of Pathogen Biology at China’s top medical research institute, the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences? Because he has already said, apparently: “This is very likely to be an epidemic that co-exists with humans for a long time, becomes seasonal and is sustained within human bodies,”

I think you are referring to this article published in Bloomberg

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/virus-is-here-to-stay-and-likely-seasonal-say-china-scientists

That article really deals with the longer term future outlook of the virus. As a sidebar within that article indicates, that discussion leads into a longer and more complex one about 'herd immunity' and its possible strategic use in impoverished third world countries with significantly younger populations.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-21/a-herd-immunity-strategy-could-actually-work-in-youthful-india

(Q - Do major industrial countries really wish to treat themselves as impoverished third world countries might ?)

My point was about avoiding the mistake of using longer term discussions about the value of using a 'herd immunity' strategy as a pretext for attacking the validity of the current lockdowns that were hurriedly put in place when the R0 factor was well above 2 in both USA and much of western Europe during the initial onslaught of the pandemic.

The consequences of doing that, and of failing to control the initial spike of the I curve in the basic SIR model was dramatically illustrated by what happened recently in a city like Guayaquil in Ecuador.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-how-a-city-in-ecuador-became-latin-americas-wuhan-11981836

There the public services collapsed so badly that not only were the hospitals overwhelmed, but so were the public sanitation services. The bodies of victims who died in their homes were being wrapped in bin-liners and abandoned on the streets outside their homes, because there were no sanitation staff or undertakers left to collect them.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby doogles on May 2nd, 2020, 8:29 pm 

I found Toucana's earlier post about the ACE receptors interesting. I'd seen a reference in passing to the ACE2 receptors, but for some reason, I did not associate it with Angiotension Converting Enzyme.

I also thought that TheVat's reference to Cause of Death (COD) being generally restricted to a single term, was pertinent. It may have some relevance to the statistics on incidence.

While listening to talk-back radio here in Australia, I gained the impression that we list the cause of death in the elderly, particularly for nursing home residents, as Corvid-19 if the patients have had clinical signs of the disease pre-mortem. This is the opposite of the situation that TheVat has reported for the USA. But it has prompted the question among talk-back respondents as to whether we should be reporting such deaths in the elderly as occurring WITH the disease or BECAUSE OF the disease. Perhaps we need a third category of WITH or BECAUSE OF for statistics purposes.

When I read that "The mechanism of acute myocardial injury caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection might be related to ACE2. ACE2 is widely expressed not only in the lungs but also in the cardiovascular system and, therefore, ACE2-related signalling pathways might also have a role in heart injury. Other proposed mechanisms of myocardial injury include a cytokine storm triggered by an imbalanced response by type 1 and type 2 T helper cells3,6, and respiratory dysfunction and hypoxaemia caused by COVID-19, resulting in damage to myocardial cells." in a paper by Zheng et al (2020; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41569- ... SpxGZ18TmI) titled COVID-19 and the cardiovascular system, I can understand why the elderly, with multiple co-morbidities involving cardiovascular, respiratory and immunological systems are so susceptible.

The other thing is that although I have been doing a large amount of reading about hypertension over the last few weeks, I had not heard about ACE2 until this literature about Corvid-19 appeared. Whereas ACE converts angiotensin 1 into angiotensin 2, ACE2 converts angiotensin 2 into angiotensin 1 to 7. I've never seen a mention of angiotensin 3 to 7 before. There is no doubt that this forum is a useful site for discovering the degree of one's own ignorance.

Of passing interest, some TV news reported this morning that trials using the plasma of recovered patients have now commenced here in Australia
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 2nd, 2020, 9:48 pm 

toucana » May 3rd, 2020, 1:20 am wrote:(Q - Do major industrial countries really wish to treat themselves as impoverished third world countries might ?)

My point was about avoiding the mistake of using longer term discussions about the value of using a 'herd immunity' strategy as a pretext for attacking the validity of the current lockdowns that were hurriedly put in place when the R0 factor was well above 2 in both USA and much of western Europe during the initial onslaught of the pandemic.

Considering that the initial presumed solution of vaccination is 1) a long way off, 2) not anywhere near as potentially effective as was initially assumed, and 3) covid-19's significant death toll is apparently more due to its asymptomatic and highly rapid transmission than to it's likely influenza-like fatality rate, how do the more developed countries expect to stop covid-19 from eventually penetrating into every carehome and house in society? By housing vulnerable people on quarantine space stations? No, it seems that we're just not technologically advanced enough yet at this stage.

Thus, it's not about herd immunity as a proposal (which, in any case is threatened as an idea by low antibody counts at present), but rather perhaps more about readjusting the perceived threat that 'the common cold' (which has traditionally contained misdiagnosed coronaviruses among its collection of various pathogens) poses to members of our society.

Covid-19's 'trump card' is not its deadliness, since the data is pointing towards its fatality per infection case rate as being similar to seasonal influenza. Rather, its key 'danger' is its INCREDIBLY RAPID AND INVISIBLE SPREAD that delivers its deadliness to vulnerable areas of society in such a 'tidal wave' that it seems 1) to have a higher fatality rate than seasonal flu, and 2) therefore 'as deadly as SARS'. But this is likely not the case.

Rather, it is just moving faster and more silently than influenza, and thus reaching more vulnerable people more silently and quickly, and we don't yet have the technological sophistication to prevent that from happening into the foreseeable future without making our societies critically dysfunctional.

Domestic violence, business collapse, cancer treatment reduction, and thus increases in suicide are all happening right now whilst covid-19 is being treated more like SARS than seasonal flu. The big question is, is that the right interpretation of and response to the present crisis?

The current 2-months forward Chinese expert stance seems to be that covid-19 is currently impossible to eradicate; it's endemic, and we need to find new ways to 1) live with it for now, and 2) to somehow stop its rapid and asymptomatic transmission and eventually somehow eradicate it.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 3rd, 2020, 11:29 am 

Researchers from Columbia University recently estimated that only 1 in 12 cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. are documented, which they said would translate to an infection fatality rate of about 0.6%, according to The Washington Post. But even this lower estimate is still at least six times higher than that of the flu. (The case fatality rate in people who become sick with flu may be 0.1%, but when you account for people who become infected with flu but never show symptoms, the death rate will be half or even a quarter of that, the Post reported.)


https://www.livescience.com/new-coronav ... h-flu.html
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 3rd, 2020, 12:36 pm 

Way more people may have gotten coronavirus than we are detecting.

That's the takeaway from a small study of coronavirus antibodies in more than 3,000 people in Santa Clara County, California. The results suggested that between 2.5% and 4.2% of people in the county have contracted COVID-19, which is 50 to 85 times greater than the number of cases being reported at the time. Not everyone is convinced the true prevalence is that high, however, with some saying the antibody test the researchers used was not reliable.

However, this type of antibody testing, or serologic study, should be rolled out more broadly, epidemiologists told Live Science.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus ... clara.html

If the prevalence is 70 times higher, which is in the ranges suggested by their study, then current global fatality rate is 0.1%, like seasonal influenza. That multiplier gets lower and lower when lack of testing becomes accounted for, however.

Regarding uncounted cases and deaths of influenza, the situation is far from clear. Flu disappears from a dead body pretty fast, and is not likely to be listed as the cause of death on certificates. See the graph below, for example.

The data is pretty fuzzy, isn't it... so it is good to err on the side of caution, but what is the most cautious ongoing protocol?

One thing is pretty sure, and that is people under 60 yrs are NOT DYING LIKE THEY DID WITH SARS , and rapid asymptomatic spreading is too strong for minimum levels of service personnel not to continue spreading it - it is uncontainable. Therefore it seems that the measures taken should not be like they were for SARS after the death wave of vulnerables has peaked.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 3rd, 2020, 5:50 pm 

Wasn't that Santa Clara study the one that used Facebook ads to recruit volunteers? Due to the flaws that would create in random sampling, I think it got flayed in peer review. Who's going to answer a FB ad? Most likely someone who is already concerned they might have been exposed, or who had some symptoms.

Generally I agree we are woefully short of solid data. Both sampling and reporting are so easy to skew.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 3rd, 2020, 9:09 pm 

Yes, that's right. But Stanford apparently saw it fit to release the data pre-peer review.

The point I was trying to make was that ASSUMPTIONS regarding BROAD fatality rates of both influenza and covid-19 should not be elevated to facts so easily. For both covid-19 and seasonal influenza there are still huge unknowns.

The only REAL facts we have are tangible examples of deaths that COULD BE attributable to influenza or covid-19, and yet for the age groups under 60, where are those statistics; the funerals, the family members mourning the untimely deaths of their relatively young relatives? It's just not forthcoming... so the deaths that we HAVE counted and attributed to covid-19 are in the age range ratios similar to influenza it seems; vast majority vulnerable elderly, and they are dying en masse due to covid-19's incredibly silent and rapid transmission.

Again; this is nowhere near SARS in terms of deadliness to under 60s, and don't forget 20% of common colds are misdiagnosed coronaviruses... so there IS a potential scenario here where covid-19 is just a way more stealthy; spreadable, influenza-emulator - in terms of fatality rate and average victim (by age group)...
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 3rd, 2020, 10:08 pm 

It's been a little over a decade since the world experienced its last pandemic, the 2009 H1N1 swine flu. Between the spring of 2009 and the spring of 2010, the virus infected as many as 1.4 billion people across the globe and killed between 151,700 and 575,400 people, according to the Centers for Disease Protection and Control. Now, the world is in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, caused by a novel coronavirus called SARS-CoV-2.

[...]

The 2009 flu pandemic primarily affected children and young adults, and 80% of the deaths were in people younger than 65, the CDC reported. That was unusual, considering that most strains of flu viruses, including those that cause seasonal flu, cause the highest percentage of deaths in people ages 65 and older. But in the case of the swine flu, older people seemed to have already built up enough immunity to the group of viruses that H1N1 belongs to, so weren't affected as much.

There is typically some herd immunity to seasonal flu, Strathdee said. This means that so many people are immune to the infection, because of vaccines or because their immune system has already fought the infection, that the few people who aren't immune are somewhat protected. There might be some groups of people who have immunity to the 2019-CoV-2 virus, too, but that's an area that's still being researched. So far, COVID-19 is most deadly for people over 60 who have underlying health conditions.

https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-pa ... e-flu.html

H1N1 'Swine flu' was an influenza virus, not a coronavirus, and even though there was some herd immunity in the elderly population, it killed quite a lot of younger people.

Covid-19 IS NOT DOING THAT, however. In it's victim targeting, it is behaving more like a seasonal (non pandemic) influenza virus that only really threatens the elderly - as if they had no immunity from previous infections, and it has a faster and more silent transmission rate than regular flu, thus the rapid and considerable death figures.

Data from the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC) finds that more than 80% of the cases have been mild, with the sick and elderly most at risk.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51540981

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About 80% of people who died from the virus in China were over the age of 60, and 75% had pre-existing conditions, according to a recent report from China’s National Health Commission.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/the-cor ... -kids.html

Now are these results what you would expect from Swine Flu or SARS? Or else from something more like seasonal influenza that is just more silent and transmissable? From where I'm standing, it seems to be the latter.

Sweden’s COVID-19 strategy has become the subject of much attention in recent weeks. While much of the world is under lockdown or testing, Sweden has opted to do neither. Despite some restrictions, such as banning public gatherings of more than 50 people and stipulating that tables in restaurants should be set apart, the streets remain bustling, bars are still trading, and primary schools are open. Instead of imposing widespread restrictions, the Swedish government has advised its citizens to act responsibly by practising social distancing and staying at home when sick.

In a country of around 10 million people, the numbers of infected and deaths in Sweden as of 27 April 2020 are 18,926 and 2,274 respectively. These figures are smaller than those of Italy, Spain or the UK. But they are higher than Greece or Portugal’s, whose population sizes are similar to Sweden’s and much higher than Sweden’s Nordic neighbours. This might not be seen as a disaster but neither can it be viewed as reassuring.

The majority of Swedes continue to support their government’s approach. Many argue that Swedes practice social distancing as a cultural habit anyways. As such, they can act responsibly in the manner that the government is asking them to do, without lockdowns. Some commentators see this as an example of the mutual trust between the State and the people that makes Sweden unique.

https://www.euronews.com/2020/04/27/swe ... urope-view
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 4th, 2020, 3:33 am 

Mossling wrote:
The only REAL facts we have are tangible examples of deaths that COULD BE attributable to influenza or covid-19, and yet for the age groups under 60, where are those statistics; the funerals, the family members mourning the untimely deaths of their relatively young relatives?

Do you perhaps means stories like this one ?
Twin sisters have died within three days of each other after testing positive for coronavirus.
Children's nurse Katy Davis, 37, died at Southampton General Hospital on Tuesday.
Identical twin Emma, herself a former nurse, died at the same hospital early on Friday.

Katy, who worked at Southampton Children's Hospital, tested positive for Covid-19 on admission to hospital and died on Tuesday evening.

Emma Davis had worked at the same hospital as her sister in the colorectal surgery unit for nine years until 2013

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-hampshire-52409765

How do you explain the escalating number of reports suggesting that COVID-19 infections also cause significant amounts of damage to the hearts, vascular systems and above all to the kidneys of patients ?

Almost half the people hospitalised because of Covid-19 have blood or protein in their urine, indicating early damage to their kidneys, said Alan Kliger, a Yale University School of Medicine nephrologist who co-chairs a task force assisting dialysis patients who have Covid-19.

Even more alarming, he added, is early data that shows 14 to 30 per cent of intensive-care patients in New York and Wuhan, China – birthplace of the pandemic – have lost kidney function and require dialysis, or its in-hospital cousin, continuous renal replacement therapy. New York intensive care units are treating so much kidney failure, he said, they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country. They also are running dangerously short of the sterile fluids used to deliver therapy he said.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/coronavirus-symptoms-lung-kidney-heart-covid-19-us-doctors-a9466701.html

Does this really sound like a typical form of seasonal influenza that mainly affects the elderly ?

Did you by any chance read this story about a well-known Canadian Broadway actor called Nick Cordero (Blue Bloods, Waitress, Rock of Ages) ? He recently had to have his right leg amputated in hospital after contracting COVID-19 and being placed on a ventilator - He was 41 years old.
Cordero underwent initial surgery to help with "blood flow issues coming down to his foot”…

.. On Saturday she confirmed they had received "difficult news", as the blood thinners Cordero had been given to combat clotting in his leg had sparked internal bleeding in his intestines.

The decision was then taken to stop the blood thinners and amputate his leg.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-broadway-actor-nick-cordero-has-leg-amputated-after-covid-19-complications-11975564


This last problem incidentally appears to be yet another unique complication associated with COVID-19.
As well as causing severe respiratory problems, there is mounting evidence COVID-19 causes abnormalities in blood clotting. Patients with severe COVID-19 infection appear to be at greater risk of developing blood clots in the veins and arteries.

Blood clots can occur deep in the veins of the leg (deep vein thrombosis) and can move to the lungs, causing a pulmonary embolism, which restricts blood flow and oxygen, and can be fatal.

Blood clots in arteries can cause heart attacks when they block blood supply to the heart, or strokes when they block oxygen supply to the brain.

Recent data from the Netherlands and France suggest that of the patients with coronavirus who are admitted to intensive care units (ICU), 30-70% develop blood clots in the deep veins of the legs, or in the lungs.

Around one in four coronavirus patients admitted to ICU will develop a pulmonary embolism.
These rates are much higher than we would usually see in patients requiring admission to ICU for reasons other than COVID-19.

Patients who present to hospital with COVID-19 are also more likely to have a stroke when compared with the general population.

Typically, the chance of having a stroke is associated with increasing age, as well as other risk factors such as high blood pressure, elevated cholesterol levels, or smoking.

However, higher rates of strokes in patients with COVID-19 is somewhat unusual because it also seems to be happening in people under 50 years of age, with no other risk factors for stroke.

https://theconversation.com/people-with-coronavirus-are-at-risk-of-blood-clots-and-strokes-heres-what-we-know-so-far-137304

Once again, little of this sounds at all similar to the symptoms normally presented by seasonal influenza.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 4th, 2020, 7:16 am 

Toucana,

Yes, it's a coronavirus, not influenza, and it has its own particular traits - one of them being a seeming greater asymptomatic transmission rate. It will also affect peoples' bodies in different ways to influenza. This is not unexpected.

If you look at the BBC graph I included in my last post it has fatalaties in the age range 10-60 yrs. I am not suggesting that fatalities under 60 yrs old are absent. In that previous post I also quoted how at least 3/4 of fatalities seem to have pre-existing health issues that probably made them extremely susceptible. Are doctors aware of EVERY single person who has a pre-existing health issue; the particular hidden issue that they have? It seems not, and so how can someone say something like 'perfectly healthy people are dying - the old and the young'? It can't be conclusive in the slightest.

A question posed in a previous post was: "for the age groups under 60, where are those statistics..?" - not to assert that there are zero deaths. I've already posted two different graphs displaying covid-19 data showing that that is not the case. I also posted a graph of SARS deaths previously, which for the age group 45-54 had a mortality rate of 13% for cases of infection. Compare that to covid-19's current ~1% fatality rate for that age group, for example. This is what I meant by "where are those statistics?". People under 60 yrs are reacting to covid-19 like it's SARS, but the data shows that it is not SARS.

Another way that covid-19 is not like SARS is its asymptomatic rapid transmission - meaning that SARS type measures; lockdowns but with basic necessary infrastructure workers still going out and about, will likely not be effective in containing and eradicating covid-19 in the same way that SARS was.

Again, yes; lockdowns necessary to slow the deaths in order to stop hospitals becoming overwhelmed, but also again; covid-19 isn't remotely like SARS and cannot even be contained and eradicated like SARS it seems.

Please don't assume some dark purpose from me here, Toucana. You seem to be taking our discussions rather personally. I am just looking at data as it comes in, as you are.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 4th, 2020, 11:36 am 

I think it's important to consider that the increased stroke and DVT factor, will often not be fatal and therefore not register on the CV deaths rate, but leave many with lifelong disabilities and cognitive impairments that won't be tracked as anything but "recovered" in the simplified stats that most of the public follow. Personally, I see the quality of life of a fifty year old person more worth our concern than the prolongation of life of someone who is at the end of their years and confined to a nursing home. I would much rather the Reaper take me than put a younger person in a wheelchair for decades of her life or try to do her job with aphasia. If CV19 is going to have nonlethal consequences like that, I'd say it tips the balance towards stricter social distancing. Especially if clotting is seen in patients without pre-existing health conditions.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-sho ... nd-strokes

And some hints about how COVID-19 affects clotting are coming from lab tests of patients, says Dr. Tiffany Osborn, a professor of surgery and emergency medicine at Washington University in St. Louis.

"We are seeing lab values that are off the wall," she says.

For example, doctors are seeing levels of a protein fragment called a D-dimer that are more than 100 times normal levels, Osborn says. This suggests the presence of lots of blood clots that the body is trying to break down.

Some patients also have very high levels of thrombin, an enzyme that causes blood to clot.

And there's growing evidence that blood clots associated with COVID-19 are causing problems through the body.


I think we should be getting more data from nations like Sweden and Brazil (good luck with the latter!) where the virus has been allowed to spread widely, to better gauge longer term health outcomes where patients survive but face serious impairments.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby toucana on May 4th, 2020, 3:03 pm 

Another bizarre physiological manifestation of COVID-19 has been observed which doctors are christening ‘happy hypoxia’.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-doctors-warn-of-strange-phenomenon-dubbed-happy-hypoxia-in-covid-19-patients-11983056

Some COVID-19 patients with extraordinarily low blood-oxygen levels have been able to chat to doctors, scroll on their phones and have generally described themselves as comfortable, according to Science Magazine.

A normal blood-oxygen saturation is at least 95% and in most lung diseases, such as pneumonia, if those levels drop they have adverse effects, including fluid-filled lungs or rising levels of carbon dioxide, leaving patients feeling short of breath.

But while patients struggle to breathe with damaged lungs in serious cases of COVID-19, early in the disease low blood-oxygen levels is not always coupled with obvious respiratory difficulties, Science Magazine reported.

Coronavirus patients can be breathing comfortably with normal carbon dioxide levels but have oxygen saturation levels in the 70s, 60s, 50s or even lower, the journal said.

Although mountain climbers can have similar readings, some doctors believe it is potentially "ominous" in COVID-19 patients, Nicholas Caputo, an emergency physician in New York, told the publication.

Dr Jonathan Bannard-Smith, a consultant in critical care and anaesthesia at Manchester Royal Infirmary, told the Guardian that it was "an example of very abnormal physiology going on before our eyes".

"We're seeing oxygen saturations that are very low and [patients] are unaware of that," he said.

"We wouldn't usually see this phenomenon in influenza or community-acquired pneumonia."

Doctors suspect that this phenomenon may be closely related to other types of abnormal disseminated blood clotting that have been observed in COVID-19 patients
Elnara Marcia Negri, a pulmonologist in Sao Paulo, told Science she believes subtle clotting might begin early in the lungs, prompting blood from getting properly oxygenated.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 4th, 2020, 10:41 pm 

TheVat » May 5th, 2020, 12:36 am wrote:I think we should be getting more data from nations like Sweden and Brazil (good luck with the latter!) where the virus has been allowed to spread widely, to better gauge longer term health outcomes where patients survive but face serious impairments.

Absolutely. What percentage of victims are being left with these kinds of complications?

Hopefully very few.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 4th, 2020, 11:20 pm 

The novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different genetic variations, according to a new study in China.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in finding that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure.

The study, which was carried out by professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, was published in a non-peer-reviewed paper released on Sunday.
The researchers analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

More than 30 different mutations of the virus were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.
“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.

The novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different genetic variations, according to a new study in China.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in finding that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an ove

The study, which was carried out by professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, was published in a non-peer-reviewed paper released on Sunday.
The researchers analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells. China’s coronavirus numbers, however, have been questioned, as they have not been verified.

More than 30 different mutations of the virus were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.
“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.
As of Tuesday afternoon, COVID-19 has infected more than 804,000 people in the United States and killed at least 43,200. More than 4 million tests have been conducted in the US, but experts believe that number must be increased in order to reopen society. Worldwide, there are at least 2.5 million cases of the disease.
Li’s team found that some of the most aggressive strains of the virus were able to generate 270 times the viral load of the weakest strains; in addition, the aggressive strains killed the human cells fastest.
According to their findings, the “true diversity” of the viral strains is underappreciated and must be understood in order to find a treatment or vaccine.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/coronavir ... ins-study/

There are potential big complications involved when hoping for a vaccine to arrive.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 6th, 2020, 10:19 am 

https://www.latimes.com/california/stor ... n-original

If the pandemic fails to wane seasonally as the weather warms, the study warns, the virus could undergo further mutations even as research organizations prepare the first medical treatments and vaccines. Without getting on top of the risk now, the effectiveness of vaccines could be limited. Some of the compounds in development are supposed to latch onto the spike or interrupt its action. If they were designed based on the original version of the spike, they might not be effective against the new coronavirus strain, the study’s authors warned.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby doogles on May 6th, 2020, 5:16 pm 

Mossling » Tue May 05, 2020 1:20 pm wrote:
The novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different genetic variations, according to a new study in China.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in finding that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure.

The study, which was carried out by professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, was published in a non-peer-reviewed paper released on Sunday.
The researchers analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells.

More than 30 different mutations of the virus were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.
“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.

The novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different genetic variations, according to a new study in China.
The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in finding that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an ove

The study, which was carried out by professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China, was published in a non-peer-reviewed paper released on Sunday.
The researchers analyzed the strains from 11 randomly chosen coronavirus patients from Hangzhou, where there have been 1,264 reported cases, and then tested how efficiently they could infect and kill cells. China’s coronavirus numbers, however, have been questioned, as they have not been verified.

More than 30 different mutations of the virus were detected, of which 19 were previously undiscovered.
“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li wrote in the paper.
As of Tuesday afternoon, COVID-19 has infected more than 804,000 people in the United States and killed at least 43,200. More than 4 million tests have been conducted in the US, but experts believe that number must be increased in order to reopen society. Worldwide, there are at least 2.5 million cases of the disease.
Li’s team found that some of the most aggressive strains of the virus were able to generate 270 times the viral load of the weakest strains; in addition, the aggressive strains killed the human cells fastest.
According to their findings, the “true diversity” of the viral strains is underappreciated and must be understood in order to find a treatment or vaccine.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/coronavir ... ins-study/

There are potential big complications involved when hoping for a vaccine to arrive.


Mutations can be a two-way phenomenon. One would hope that the people researching in this area are looking for strains that no longer damage human cells but which produce immunity. I've previously mentioned the attenuation of the measles, distemper, and other animal disease viruses. Louis Pasteur did not know anything about viruses when he discovered a vaccine for rabies. Just simply by trial and error, he discovered that if the brain tissue of a rabid dog was allowed sit in a sterile environment for 11 or 12 days, that an extract of that brain would no longer produce rabies, but would confer immunity on injected dogs.
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Mossling on May 8th, 2020, 12:59 am 

"Germany will have to learn to live with the coronavirus, building tactics such as physical distancing and strict hygiene into normal daily life, the country’s leading public health institution has said as it wound up its regular press briefings on the pandemic as a result of a continued fall in new infections.
Lars Schaade, the vice-president of the Robert Koch Institute, said that as Germany’s infection rate had been “substantially pushed back”...

“The epidemic is of course not over,” he said. “But having substantially pushed the virus back so that the number of new cases are between 600 and 1,300 a day … our approach now has to be to learn to live with the virus and to control it.”


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ings-cease
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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby TheVat on May 10th, 2020, 11:20 am 

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Re: Year of the Rat fears over new Corona Virus

Postby Reg_Prescott on May 10th, 2020, 12:21 pm 

I've been dating a chick with Corona virus.

Don't get the wrong impression.

It's an isolated case.
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