covid-19 epidemiologic data

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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby TheVat on December 13th, 2020, 11:26 am 

Thanks for the well wishes. Zinc, PediaLyte, and weak tea seemed to help.

This article, on how transmission may follow paths from campus to the elder care facilities, was informative....

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/12/us/c ... homes.html

Experts suggest an array of ways such spread might happen, including one simple possibility: More than 1.1 million undergraduates work in health-related occupations, census data shows, including more than 700,000 that serve as nurses, medical assistants and health care aides in their communities.

But spread of the virus may also be more invisible, through layers of separation.

“All it really takes is one cavalier interaction,” said Tali Elfassy, an epidemiologist at the University of Miami...
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby charon on December 17th, 2020, 2:03 am 

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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby toucana on December 17th, 2020, 9:37 am 

This segment is based on new reporting in Politico

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/16/trump-appointee-demanded-herd-immunity-strategy-446408

The individual at the heart of this was Michael Caputo who subsequently took medical leave of absence pleading insanity (or something very similar) a couple of months ago when the 'herd immunity' ploy started going pear-shaped.


From an earlier thread
In September, Caputo took medical leave from the department after a series of bizarre and alarming comments. For instance, in a Facebook live video that month, Caputo claimed government scientists were engaging in “sedition” and that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention harbored a “resistance unit.” He also made mention of long “shadows” in his DC apartment and warned that left-wing “hit-squads” were preparing a post-election armed insurrection. He noted that his “mental health has definitely failed.”

http://www.sciencechatforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=129&t=36036
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby charon on December 17th, 2020, 10:25 am 

Doesn't surprise me.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby edy420 on December 24th, 2020, 4:42 am 

What's the general consensus here on the vaccine. Kinda pointless with the new strain? Maybe people should just keep wearing masks instead.

I'm kind of an anti vaccer to begin with... Only I've vaccinated myself and all my kids. But this one is a little different. For one, I do think it's pointless with the Mutation. And two, it's developed in less than a year. Meaning we don't know the long term effects. This is one vaccine I will be definitely turning down. I'd rather get the virus and fight it naturally, but it's hard to get in NZ!

Maybe TheVat could cough in a jar and send it my way. Regardless, I'll pray for a speedy recovery, get well soon, TheVat.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby TheVat on December 24th, 2020, 11:19 am 

Vaccines work against multiple strains. And they build herd immunity, while saving many lives. Covid is not just a bad flu. It is not advisable to deliberately infect oneself --- many underlying health issues, especially as one moves into middle age, are not always apparent, and can make you more vulnerable to a severe covid illness. There is not a shred of evidence that vaccines, like those from Moderna or Pfizer, are dangerous. And, like, smallpox or polio vaccine, they will prevent many miserable deaths and severe illness. Please research this topic further at reputable scientific organizations, if you wish to learn how vaccines and herd immunity work.

Thanks for the well wishes. I'm recovered.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby Serpent on December 24th, 2020, 11:44 am 

It's still early days in the investigation of this virus, never mind its mutating strains. Plus, there is no guarantee that having the disease confers permanent or even long-term immunity.
What is worrisome is that SARS-CoV-2 reinfection resulted in worse disease than did the first infection, requiring oxygen support and hospitalisation. The patient had positive antibodies after the reinfection, but whether he had pre-existing antibody after the first infection is unknown
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30783-0/fulltext
A vaccine will stop the major outbreaks - at least in crowded habitations, like nursing homes and prisons, where the virus thrives and multiplies more vigorously than any other setting. That's a start.
Right now, we're seeing record after record high infection rates.
We even have 10 new cases in Grey Bruce - I think the highest single day since March.
https://www.publichealthgreybruce.on.ca/
The relatively low infection rate here should tell us something about the efficacy of precautions: we have been conscientiously keeping the rules from the beginning. I had to wait 15 minutes outside the grocery store this week, in a 12' space between two other old people in masks, for enough people to come out so it's safe for us to go in and be given a freshly-disinfected cart and wet towel. The liquor store has been doing the same since the beginning. Most other stores have curb-side pickup, or one-way aisles, a clerk directing people to the next free cashier, behind plexiglass shields. Many are closed, along with bars and restaurants. The tourism and vacation economy is in the tank...
...but nobody has died of Covid.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby doogles on December 29th, 2020, 4:49 pm 

This video graph of changing disease ratios in various countries turned up in my emails a couple of days ago.

It puts the incidence of Covid into perspective with other diseases.

https://www.worldlifeexpectancy.com/sel ... ted-states
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby toucana on December 31st, 2020, 5:42 am 

Image

A further 20 million people are under tighter restrictions after the government announced an extension of Tier 4 rules in England in a bid to curb the spread of coronavirus.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-further-20-million-people-now-under-tougher-tier-4-restrictions-as-rules-extended-12176060

On the day the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was approved to tackle COVID-19, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said a new strain of the virus was "surging across the country" and immediate action was needed.

The Isles of Scilly are currently the only part of the British Isles still in the yellow Tier 1 zone. (My home town of Bristol is narrowly within a red Tier 3 sector. All the surrounding districts are in the black Tier 4 zone).

It comes as the UK recorded 981 deaths within 28 days of a positive COVID-19 test on Wednesday - the highest number since 24 April. The high fatality figure could be partly down to a delay in reporting deaths over Christmas.

The number of new infections reported in the 24 hours to 9am on Wednesday was 50,023 - slightly down on Tuesday's 53,135 which was the most since the pandemic began.

Political leaders in areas placed into the highest COVID-19 restrictions have called on the government to consider a national lockdown.

The return of children to UK schools scheduled for 4th January has been delayed for up to a fortnight in the case of secondary schools to allow for the deployment of an enhanced COVID-19 testing system.

https://news.sky.com/story/return-to-school-delayed-for-secondary-pupils-to-allow-for-covid-testing-preparations-12175635
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby BadgerJelly on January 2nd, 2021, 3:49 am 

Can er deaths have increased - that’s not accounting for those diagnosed late who’ll die this year. Trust me about this because my dad was diagnosed with cancer earlier this year and he was put on standby for about 6 weeks longer than usual due to ‘covid preparations’ in hospitals.

The death toll is insignificant. A year on it looks like this wasn’t anywhere near as serious as anyone thought ... now they make more ‘predictions’ (made with large margin errors - for anyone who doesn’t understand how this works see previous posts).

Heart disease deaths predicted to rise and continue to rise - estimated deaths this year around 18 million, malaria 1 million, and cancer at 9.? - 10 million this year.

Covid death globally ... I’m sure you all know how low this has turned out (and given that the numbers are not significantly high in places like India and Brasil (where their capacity to prevent spreading is/was minimal I think we should be cautious about overreacting or see millions upon millions suffer for generations due to a huge economic downturn - especially in underdeveloped countries).
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby toucana on January 4th, 2021, 2:06 pm 

Image

The UK's coronavirus alert level will be raised from 4 to 5 for the first time, government sources have said.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-coronavirus-alert-level-to-be-raised-to-5-highest-possible-12179280

Level 5 or "red" means there is a "material risk of healthcare services being overwhelmed", compared to Level 4 when transmission of the virus is "high or rising exponentially".

The COVID-19 alert level refers to the threat of the epidemic and is separate from the tiering system in England.

It is set by the Joint Biosecurity Centre, which includes all four nations' chief medical officers, and determines how strict coronavirus restrictions should be.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson is scheduled to address the nation on TV at 8pm tonight and is expected to announce a new national lockdown that will require schools to shut and people to remain at home for up to several months according to some press sources.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9110319/Tory-fury-Matt-Hancock-hints-tougher-lockdown-saying-ruled-out.html

This is being seen as a tacit admission that the government has lost control of the spread of the latest COVID-19 variant.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby TheVat on January 4th, 2021, 2:46 pm 

Badger, I see a distinction that can reasonably be made between health conditions where some choices come down to personal lifestyle (like heart disease, where choices of food and exercise play a major role) and those where you can spread a pathogen to another person. As DOOGLES' post showed, Covid has in the USA moved to the top of causes of death for 2020, so it does seem reasonable to have public health measures that limit spreading a virus to other people. We can't enforce people taking vitamins or eating turmeric or taking zinc or hiking or other steps that reduce covid severity because those are choices that happen at the personal level. Just as we can't ban eating foods or couch potato habits that encourage heart disease.

But when a pathogen reaches the point where Los Angeles is inflating tents outside its hospitals, and borrowing space in hotels, etc. to handle the overflowing ICUs, then there is a public interest in slowing down interpersonal spread until everyone is vaccinated. That is unlikely to happen until summer or early fall, the way it looks now. It doesn't take a really large rise in death rates to overwhelm hospitals. While you may be young and sanguine about your own risks, keep in mind that there are areas of my country (including the city I live in) where I cannot, right now, have a serious traumatic medical issue and get adequate care at a hospital because staff are already maxed-out caring for covid patients. Whatever metric you wish to use, THAT is a public health crisis. And simply looking at deaths will not provide you with the total numbers of people who are quite ill with covid, some of whom are long-haulers requiring repeat sessions of medical care. The fact that they haven't died yet does not mean they aren't looking at health consequences that affect quality of life, ability to work, and future prospects of health.

I worked for years in a job, interacting with the public health system, and this is one topic where I know whereof I speak. And I would not try to deceive or misdirect anyone on the situation for political or ideological reasons.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby BadgerJelly on January 6th, 2021, 1:49 am 

Vat -

I worked for years in a job, interacting with the public health system, and this is one topic where I know whereof I speak. And I would not try to deceive or misdirect anyone on the situation for political or ideological reasons.


1.8 million dead worldwide. 1 million die every year of malaria. I guess few people die of malaria in the US so that isn’t significant?

Please remember, cancer and heart disease are not going away yet. Projections for April put total death toll at max of 3.5 million (not counting vaccine effect - probably insignificant at the that time anyway!) ... certainly a large number. This isn’t - when compared to other diseases - a particularly long lasting or persistent disease though. Yeah, covid-20 is out now in all good UK shops, but the vaccine will eventually stem the problem within the next few years whereas for heart disease and cancer many more millions will continue to die. It just looks like people are focus on the danger of a candle burning a room down whilst their clothes are already burning.

To continue with that analogy, if we protect ourselves from the candles flame at the cost of literally burning the clothes off people’s backs how are they going to survive in the elements? Yeah, you could argue that the candle may set the room aflame ... but hey, that doesn’t see likely and we’re already burning with cancer and heart disease as it is without closing down and throwing people into the streets with nothing but burnt rags to wear.

As for Heart Disease and Cancer as a ‘lifestyle’ choice ... reminds me of what people said about HIV in the 80’s - some relation, but it certainly isn’t the driving force for cancer. Do you have any idea what the percentage chance of your getting cancer is in your lifetime. And if heart disease is primarily about ‘lifestyle’ then where is the governmental intervention in the US in food standards? Why is McDonalds still open and selling sugar, salt and fat in tonnes whilst other addictive substances are banned? My point being the loss of perspective involved right now.

In the US the leading causes of death - in 2020 - were Cancer and Heart Disease. There is also a decent amount of evidence to support the claim that cancer deaths will increase due to the knock-on effects of hospitals ‘preparing’ for covid in the UK. Not to mention people scared of going to hospital for check-ups leading to more fatalities.

Also, covid-19 is a pandemic it is not localised to the US. Yeah, measures should be taken. From the outset I’ve been concerned about developing nations and their capacity to handle the economic downturn. I’m not primarily concerned for any particular country as the poorest in the world at large will suffer and moe people will fall into poverty (which effects levels of health and education).

A friend of my mothers will likely die soon due to such hospital ‘delays’. In a time period where the hospitals were NOT overrun, but merely ‘preparing’ and therefore delaying treatments and diagnosis? Cancer appointments (in the thousands) were setback by months - again, I have first and secondhand reports of this as my father was diagnosed and joined a discussion group where such incidents were reported nationally (meaning delays in treatment and diagnosis).

And simply looking at deaths will not provide you with the total numbers of people who are quite ill with covid, some of whom are long-haulers requiring repeat sessions of medical care.


No shit Sherlock! And the knock-on effects for other treatments that have been delayed? And how about the economic fallout? Are you comfy enough to pretend only covid deaths matter? Have you been completely brainwashed by hyperbole and sensationalism.

Yeah, it’s a problem. If no measures had been taken I’m sure the figures would be MUCH higher - maybe even hit 5-10 million worst case scenario. The facts are there to see. It’s bad, but it’s not doomsday. Yes, it’s pretty bad ... it is not terrible though. I am not saying nothing should be done, just saying that the fear doesn’t seem proportional to the actual risk - I believe it causes more harm than good.

Now let’s look at the figures for cancer deaths in the US .... somehow they have fallen dramatically in 2020? Why is this? Could it be that people with cancer contracted covid and died?

You can easily look at countries where their ability to deal with this disease is pretty limited to understand the extent of the risks involved. In both India and Brasil most people simply cannot afford not to work, so they continue to work (as appears to have been the main reaction in the US). True enough, the figures for both Brasil and India are likely significantly higher due to the lack of infrastructure to record all deaths accurately?

Anyway, now there is Covid 20 and next year they’ll be Covid 21 ... in a decade or so CRISPR will practically be able to eradicate all diseases.

The western world was kind of slow to react. It doesn’t make much sense to lock the gates after the horses have bolted. Plus, decades of international collaboration to combat the flu have always fallen short. There is no good reason to expect this new virus as something that is going to be contained all that easily.

My fear - which appears to have been justified - was that the economic fallout will cause greater suffering and death than the disease itself. I’ve seen lots of fear and sensationalist propaganda (due to idiots on social media) that have done little more than force governments hands to act in an irrational manner most of the time.

Note: The knock-on effects of poverty last generations and effect health and education. This whole affair could basically set back developing nations by a decade or more.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby TheVat on January 6th, 2021, 12:28 pm 

You've entirely misunderstood my point. Not sure if rereading will help or not. I was addressing the comparative of disease caused by longterm health habits, using heart disease as an example, versus a viral illness that can kill someone in a few days. Of course heart disease is not solely a result of lifestyle habits, and no one denies that pollutants and environmental stressors and genetic predisposition plays a role as well. I was simply pointing out that a virus can be greatly reduced in threat by immediate protective measures like maskwearing and social spacing, so it offers a clearcut legislative path. Whereas cleaning up urban air, encouraging exercise and healthy diet, etc. is the work of generations and involves choices that are not easily legislated.

I was not in any way advocating fear-mongering, nor do I think the public health measures that work so well have to be seen as stirring up fear. If anything, knowing everyone is masking up, and avoiding crowding, and handwashing, should reduce anxiety and make going out more relaxed.

I am baffled to see my earlier comments be taken in such a distorted way. Nor does advocacy for trying to reduce covid, which is now nearly tied for leading cause of death in the US, meant in any way to suggest cancer or malaria or dengue fever or any other serious world health problem are not also needful of our health system's ongoing focused attention. I have, here on this forum, personally written about the need for the US to lend greater support to anti-malarial measures in the tropics, like distribution of mosquito netting and water treatment systems and so on.

Have you looked at the hospital situation in hot spots for covid, around the world? No ICU beds, running out of oxygen and equipment, temporary tent hospitals, hospitals that are understaffed, and other problems due to a disease that, unlike heart disease or cancer, will suddenly surge in an area and bring health systems to a breaking point. This is why epidemics get attention. Not because people are callous about other health problems, but because a rapid overload takes place due to an incredibly infectious virus. And this is my final attempt to explain what should be bloody obvious.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby doogles on January 6th, 2021, 5:22 pm 

Badger, I liked the principles you espoused in the thread 'On the denial of measured facts', but you appear to have mis-interpreted TheVat's second last post in this thread.
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby BadgerJelly on January 6th, 2021, 11:12 pm 

doogles » January 7th, 2021, 5:22 am wrote:Badger, I liked the principles you espoused in the thread 'On the denial of measured facts', but you appear to have mis-interpreted TheVat's second last post in this thread.


Really? When someone writes something in bold text I tend to assume it is to emphasis the point.

True enough, we don’t have the full picture for the US yet. Will likely be on par with cancer by April (which is roughly I year since it properly hit the US).

Neither have I said anything about masks? Of course people should wear them. My main point in posting was to say the death toll is not as high (globally) a year on as first expected. 1.8 million isn’t all that bad. The US is quite unique this year gone by with people continually meeting en masse for various protests ... if common sense was applied then it wouldn’t be such a problem - it is in nature western psychology to oppose authority though, such is life.

We’ll see how many people die as a repercussion of lockdown measures and fear mongering in the future. Once it’s all calculated I do expect to see a large increase in cancer and other health issues raised significantly due to lack of diagnosis and treatment (brought about because of preparation for covid).

What is obvious to one isn’t obvious to another because it’s easy to forget what knowledge we’ve worked for.

Vat -

Covid is tied for the leading cause of death in the US over what time period? A day, a month, a year, a decade? You really think the reaction to this problem has been proportionate to the dangers involved? I really, really don’t - and please remember I’m not viewing this from an amerocentric position and never have been (but I have looked carefully at how each nation’s media makes comparisons with other countries to suit sensationalistic story telling).

As is often the case what people think, say and think they’re saying, is often merely surrounding their true volition NOT driving it.

Maybe this will rouse you:

https://www.businesstoday.in/opinion/co ... 20575.html

I except that it is just their problem to deal with. Millions and millions and millions of people will live a life scrapping the barrel ... many of them will die due to hunger and/or hunger related illnesses due to the economic downturn brought on by global lockdowns.

Out of sight out of mind? Maybe this is the main problem. I’m dreading moving to Manila ... poverty was already pretty bad there before, but we’re talking about winding the clock back by a decade in terms of development.

Maybe you think I’m callous talking about a few million people dying as not that big a deal? The reason is is that I can see the price being paid over the next several years by the most vulnerable. I can see people who were above water now drowning slowly and painfully ... this in a country where the pandemic has been contained. The damage is primarily economic AND they have their shit together here too ... when in come to Indinesia, India and Brasil (must be horrific!).
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Re: covid-19 epidemiologic data

Postby hyksos on January 8th, 2021, 12:52 pm 

bad_flu_season_hoax.png


The grey lines are ICU visits from flu, in the years 2012 through 2019. The red line is ICU visits :Due to flu-like symptoms: throughout 2020 into 2021. This data is from UK.
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