From Russia with déjà vu

Reopened October 2019 - includes archived threads from pre-2019

From Russia with déjà vu

Postby toucana on March 17th, 2021, 3:33 pm 

A new US intelligence report has found that Russia interfered in the 2020 election to help Donald Trump and hurt Joe Biden

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/03/16/politics/read-odni-foreign-threats-2020/index.html

The report, released by Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, finds that Moscow sought to inject misleading information about Biden into the campaign through officials and others close to Trump.

The report concludes that Russia premier Vladimir Putin was directly responsible for authorising these attempts
"A key element of Moscow's strategy this election cycle was its use of proxies linked to Russian intelligence to push influence narratives -- including misleading or unsubstantiated allegations against President Biden -- to US media organizations, US officials, and prominent US individuals, including some close to former President Trump and his administration,"

Some of the names mentioned in this latest report will make very familiar reading to anyone who followed Robert Mueller’s investigation into the possible links between Russia and the 2016 Trump presidential campaign.The Russian intelligence agent Konstantin Kilimnik for example figures quite prominently.

Kilimnik who was indicted by Robert Mueller’s team in 2018 was one of Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort’s closest friends and advisers during his Ukrainian money laundering activities in 2015-16 which led to his conviction and imprisonment on felony tax evasion, money laundering and wire-fraud charges

Another Russian fixer called Andrly Derkach was a close ally of self-appointed Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani who spent a good deal of time travelling to Ukraine to confer with this Ukrainian lawmaker in repeated attempts to unearth potentially damaging information on Hunter Biden, the son of the presidential contender.

US intelligence agencies concluded that Putin “had purview over the activities of Andrly Derkach” - putting only one degree of separation between the Russian leader and Trump’s lawyer.

The report specifically mentions that:
Derkach, Kilimnik and their associates sought to use prominent US persons and media conduits to launder their narratives to US offficials and audiences. These Russian proxies met with and provided materials to Trump administration-linked US persons to advocate for formal investigations, hired a US firm to petition US officials; and attempted to make contact with several senior US officials. They also made contact with established US media figures and helped produce a documentary that aired on a US television network in late January 2020 - (Have a guess which one)

The same report indicates that Iran was also conducting covert influencing operations during the 2020 US presidential elections, but was attempting to undercut and damage the Trump campaign in direct opposition to what the Russian government was doing. The Chinese government according to US intelligence agencies refrained from running any significant influence operations at all, having concluded that neither candidate was beneficial to China’s interests.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby toucana on March 18th, 2021, 7:35 am 

The documentary referred to was apparently a One America News (OAN) report by Jack Posobiec and Michael Caputo entitled The Ukraine Hoax: Impeachment, Biden Cash, And Mass Murder with Michael Caputo

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/01/24/one_america_news_reports_the_ukraine_hoax_impeachment_biden_cash_mass_murder.html

It was screened multiple times across the w/e of 25/26th January 2020 in the 10pm slot.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby charon on March 18th, 2021, 3:17 pm 

Why is Putin so aggressive to the US? What does he hope to gain? War? Why doesn't he just get on with running his country? What's the matter with him? Or is there something about the US we don't know?
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby toucana on March 18th, 2021, 7:43 pm 

charon wrote:Why is Putin so aggressive to the US? What does he hope to gain? War? Why doesn't he just get on with running his country? What's the matter with him? Or is there something about the US we don't know?

You could write a thesis length answer to this, and it would probably belong elsewhere.

A thumbnail version would be that Russia in modern times has always regarded itself as a beleaguered state surrounded by hostile powers - China and Japan to the south and east, NATO powers in western Europe, and the USA to the north and east.

In some cases (the Mongolian steppes for example), those borders are almost indefensible without resorting to apocalyptic options. Russia feels itself to be under such threat, and at such a competitive disadvantage that it has resorted at various times to either extreme risk-taking - as in the case of the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 - or more recently has relied on the sorts of asymmetric and unconventional warfare enshrined in the so-called ‘Gerasimov Doctrine’ that I have written about before.

http://www.sciencechatforum.com/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=34155

The Gerasimov Doctrine recommends a hybrid form of guerilla warfare waged on all fronts with a wide range of actors and tools - hackers, social media sources, businessman - and the promulgation of conspiracy theories, and fake news - in addition to more conventional espionage and military methods such as the assassination of critics by Novichok poisoning.

Since 1966 when Soviet theorists first began writing about it, the forms of game theory favoured by Russian strategists seem to rely on quite crudely simplistic zero-sum models in which Russia can only feel stronger and safer if key opponents are constantly rendered weaker. This is one explanation for their endless covert attempts to subvert American democracy.

You could speculate as to what extent Russia’s reliance on zero-sum game theory has its origins in dialectical materialism, and Hegelian thinking in general. But that woud be another thesis length topic.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby toucana on March 18th, 2021, 8:33 pm 

It is worth noting that the IC report released on Tuesday was orginally first presented to Congress in a classified session on 7th January - when Donald Trump was still president - and just one day after the POTUS provoked an insurrection in a fruitless attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/03/trump-russian-asset-election-intelligence-community-report.html

The fact that it was the Trump administration's own intelligence community that comprehensively trashed every single lie uttered by the president about the election makes that report even more impressive.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby charon on March 19th, 2021, 7:46 am 

surrounded by hostile powers - China and Japan to the south and east, NATO powers in western Europe, and the USA to the north and east.


Well, I know the Russian outlook is historically defensive but I don't think the US is hostile in any military sense. They don't like the system much, never did, but if they come over hostile it's hardly surprising considering the new Russian weaponry, election interference, foreign assassinations, and all the rest of it. What do they expect, for god's sake?

I don't understand them. Some say Putin, being ex-KGB, is lonely for Cold War, misses the fun, etc, but that's a bit thin in my view.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby charon on March 19th, 2021, 7:55 am 

toucana » March 19th, 2021, 1:33 am wrote:It is worth noting that the IC report released on Tuesday was orginally first presented to Congress in a classified session on 7th January - when Donald Trump was still president - and just one day after the POTUS provoked an insurrection in a fruitless attempt to overturn the 2020 election results.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2021/03/trump-russian-asset-election-intelligence-community-report.html

The fact that it was the Trump administration's own intelligence community that comprehensively trashed every single lie uttered by the president about the election makes that report even more impressive.


Frankly, I was saying this practically from the word go, that if he was a Russian stooge he couldn't be doing a better job. But in the end I think I just put it down to his being a political idiot.
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby TheVat on March 19th, 2021, 9:39 am 

polezny durak
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Re: From Russia with déjà vu

Postby Serpent on March 19th, 2021, 10:34 am 

He was complaining to the wrong governor about those extra votes. He knew it at the time. He staged the insurgency anyway, with zero hope of positive outcomes: out of pure malice. That's Putin's kind of idiot - and he knows where to find more of them.
(btw - Russia doesn't hold a monopoly on political meddling and destabilization of foreign governments.)
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